Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, or enforcement actions tied to prior official roles or protests. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability near 30 percent amid ongoing intelligence-related probes, while Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and Mahmoud Khalil trade in the 9–25 percent range due to documented Senate appearances, prior detentions, and potential contempt or immigration proceedings. Broader factors include stepped-up ICE operations and federal fraud initiatives through mid-2026, alongside structural barriers such as statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds that keep most listed probabilities below 20 percent. Resolution requires a qualifying physical arrest or detention by December 31, 2026, with no major indictments of these individuals reported in recent months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$412,533 Vol.
アンソニー・ファウチ
10%
ジョン・ブレナン
21%
ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロ
11%
アダム・シフ
2%
バラク・オバマ
2%
ジェームズ・コミー
8%
マフムード・カリール
21%
ジェームズ・クラッパー
11%
レティティア・ジェームズ
9%
ヒラリー・クリントン
2%
ビル・クリントン
1%
ロレッタ・リンチ
8%
スーザン・ライス
9%
キャンディス・オーウェンズ
7%
ギャビン・ニューサム
3%
ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ
5%
ジョン・ケリー
1%
パム・ボンディ
2%
トム・ホーマン
5%
カッシュ・パテル
1%
ブランドン・ジョンソン
11%
リサ・クック
4%
イ・ジュンソク
11%
ジョー・バイデン
1%
$412,533 Vol.
アンソニー・ファウチ
$164,911 Vol.
10%
ジョン・ブレナン
$22,332 Vol.
21%
ホセ・ルイス・ロドリゲス・サパテロ
$23,455 Vol.
11%
アダム・シフ
$16,570 Vol.
2%
バラク・オバマ
$29,276 Vol.
2%
ジェームズ・コミー
$10,821 Vol.
8%
マフムード・カリール
$1,329 Vol.
21%
ジェームズ・クラッパー
$7,264 Vol.
11%
レティティア・ジェームズ
$3,047 Vol.
9%
ヒラリー・クリントン
$26,182 Vol.
2%
ビル・クリントン
$2,726 Vol.
1%
ロレッタ・リンチ
$2,411 Vol.
8%
スーザン・ライス
$304 Vol.
9%
キャンディス・オーウェンズ
$268 Vol.
7%
ギャビン・ニューサム
$39,425 Vol.
3%
ベンヤミン・ネタニヤフ
$1,936 Vol.
5%
ジョン・ケリー
$503 Vol.
1%
パム・ボンディ
$2,189 Vol.
2%
トム・ホーマン
$41,331 Vol.
5%
カッシュ・パテル
$598 Vol.
1%
ブランドン・ジョンソン
$3,290 Vol.
11%
リサ・クック
$4,005 Vol.
4%
イ・ジュンソク
$794 Vol.
11%
ジョー・バイデン
$7,565 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, or enforcement actions tied to prior official roles or protests. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability near 30 percent amid ongoing intelligence-related probes, while Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and Mahmoud Khalil trade in the 9–25 percent range due to documented Senate appearances, prior detentions, and potential contempt or immigration proceedings. Broader factors include stepped-up ICE operations and federal fraud initiatives through mid-2026, alongside structural barriers such as statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds that keep most listed probabilities below 20 percent. Resolution requires a qualifying physical arrest or detention by December 31, 2026, with no major indictments of these individuals reported in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
音量
$412,533マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, or enforcement actions tied to prior official roles or protests. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability near 30 percent amid ongoing intelligence-related probes, while Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and Mahmoud Khalil trade in the 9–25 percent range due to documented Senate appearances, prior detentions, and potential contempt or immigration proceedings. Broader factors include stepped-up ICE operations and federal fraud initiatives through mid-2026, alongside structural barriers such as statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds that keep most listed probabilities below 20 percent. Resolution requires a qualifying physical arrest or detention by December 31, 2026, with no major indictments of these individuals reported in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$412,533マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, DOJ investigations, or enforcement actions tied to prior official roles or protests. John Brennan holds the highest implied probability near 30 percent amid ongoing intelligence-related probes, while Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and Mahmoud Khalil trade in the 9–25 percent range due to documented Senate appearances, prior detentions, and potential contempt or immigration proceedings. Broader factors include stepped-up ICE operations and federal fraud initiatives through mid-2026, alongside structural barriers such as statutes of limitations and evidentiary thresholds that keep most listed probabilities below 20 percent. Resolution requires a qualifying physical arrest or detention by December 31, 2026, with no major indictments of these individuals reported in recent months.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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