Republican control of Congress and strong alignment between Vice President JD Vance and a Trump-appointed Cabinet create substantial procedural hurdles under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, which requires their written declaration of incapacity plus congressional supermajorities if contested. Recent public calls for invocation from Democratic lawmakers and commentators over the president’s social media activity and policy statements have generated attention but produced no institutional support or defections among key officials. Trader pricing at 97% for “No” reflects these durable alignments and the amendment’s historical non-use for removal, though a sudden health crisis or post-midterm shift in Cabinet composition could still alter the outlook before the end of 2026.