Israel’s airspace has remained open since partial reopening after the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, though it operates under ongoing EASA and other aviation warnings through at least late September 2026 due to missile and drone risks tied to the broader conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire that took hold earlier in the year broke down in July amid renewed military activity, including strikes and retaliatory actions, keeping regional tensions elevated. Israeli officials have stated no plans for closure under current conditions, yet assessments continue amid warnings of possible Iranian strikes during the September Jewish holiday period. Foreign carriers have begun resuming service to Ben Gurion, reflecting gradual normalization, while trader views on near-term closure hinge on any fresh escalation signals from Tehran or defensive responses by Israel.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$30,025,554 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
96%
$30,025,554 Vol.
30 settembre
$2,432,396 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace has remained open since partial reopening after the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, though it operates under ongoing EASA and other aviation warnings through at least late September 2026 due to missile and drone risks tied to the broader conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire that took hold earlier in the year broke down in July amid renewed military activity, including strikes and retaliatory actions, keeping regional tensions elevated. Israeli officials have stated no plans for closure under current conditions, yet assessments continue amid warnings of possible Iranian strikes during the September Jewish holiday period. Foreign carriers have begun resuming service to Ben Gurion, reflecting gradual normalization, while trader views on near-term closure hinge on any fresh escalation signals from Tehran or defensive responses by Israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$30,025,554Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace has remained open since partial reopening after the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, though it operates under ongoing EASA and other aviation warnings through at least late September 2026 due to missile and drone risks tied to the broader conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire that took hold earlier in the year broke down in July amid renewed military activity, including strikes and retaliatory actions, keeping regional tensions elevated. Israeli officials have stated no plans for closure under current conditions, yet assessments continue amid warnings of possible Iranian strikes during the September Jewish holiday period. Foreign carriers have begun resuming service to Ben Gurion, reflecting gradual normalization, while trader views on near-term closure hinge on any fresh escalation signals from Tehran or defensive responses by Israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,025,554Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Israel’s airspace has remained open since partial reopening after the April 2026 ceasefire with Iran, though it operates under ongoing EASA and other aviation warnings through at least late September 2026 due to missile and drone risks tied to the broader conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire that took hold earlier in the year broke down in July amid renewed military activity, including strikes and retaliatory actions, keeping regional tensions elevated. Israeli officials have stated no plans for closure under current conditions, yet assessments continue amid warnings of possible Iranian strikes during the September Jewish holiday period. Foreign carriers have begun resuming service to Ben Gurion, reflecting gradual normalization, while trader views on near-term closure hinge on any fresh escalation signals from Tehran or defensive responses by Israel.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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