Raphaël Glucksmann leads the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first-round betting at 73.5% implied probability due to his early polling dominance among social-democratic voters and key endorsements, including from former Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo. His August candidacy announcement through the Place Publique-PS agreement, combined with a distinct pro-European, anti-LFI platform and focus on green industrial investment, has consolidated support ahead of the October 9-10 vote. Olivier Faure's late entry as Socialist leader and other declared candidates such as Jérôme Guedj have narrowed the field but not closed the gap, as trader consensus reflects Glucksmann's stronger path in this closed primary process. Upcoming candidate applications through mid-September and any further endorsements could still influence final positioning before first-round voting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRaphaël Glucksmann 74%
Olivier Faure 13%
Jérôme Guedj 12%
Ségolène Royal 3.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
10 ott 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
74%
Olivier Faure
13%
Jérôme Guedj
12%
Ségolène Royal
3%
Emmanuel Maurel
3%
Philippe Brun
1%
Raphaël Glucksmann 74%
Olivier Faure 13%
Jérôme Guedj 12%
Ségolène Royal 3.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
10 ott 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
$414 Vol.
74%
Olivier Faure
$165 Vol.
13%
Jérôme Guedj
$142 Vol.
12%
Ségolène Royal
$142 Vol.
3%
Emmanuel Maurel
$133 Vol.
3%
Philippe Brun
$87 Vol.
1%
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first-round betting at 73.5% implied probability due to his early polling dominance among social-democratic voters and key endorsements, including from former Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo. His August candidacy announcement through the Place Publique-PS agreement, combined with a distinct pro-European, anti-LFI platform and focus on green industrial investment, has consolidated support ahead of the October 9-10 vote. Olivier Faure's late entry as Socialist leader and other declared candidates such as Jérôme Guedj have narrowed the field but not closed the gap, as trader consensus reflects Glucksmann's stronger path in this closed primary process. Upcoming candidate applications through mid-September and any further endorsements could still influence final positioning before first-round voting.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Mercato aperto: Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,083Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first-round betting at 73.5% implied probability due to his early polling dominance among social-democratic voters and key endorsements, including from former Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo. His August candidacy announcement through the Place Publique-PS agreement, combined with a distinct pro-European, anti-LFI platform and focus on green industrial investment, has consolidated support ahead of the October 9-10 vote. Olivier Faure's late entry as Socialist leader and other declared candidates such as Jérôme Guedj have narrowed the field but not closed the gap, as trader consensus reflects Glucksmann's stronger path in this closed primary process. Upcoming candidate applications through mid-September and any further endorsements could still influence final positioning before first-round voting.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$1,083Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Raphaël Glucksmann leads the 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary first-round betting at 73.5% implied probability due to his early polling dominance among social-democratic voters and key endorsements, including from former Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo. His August candidacy announcement through the Place Publique-PS agreement, combined with a distinct pro-European, anti-LFI platform and focus on green industrial investment, has consolidated support ahead of the October 9-10 vote. Olivier Faure's late entry as Socialist leader and other declared candidates such as Jérôme Guedj have narrowed the field but not closed the gap, as trader consensus reflects Glucksmann's stronger path in this closed primary process. Upcoming candidate applications through mid-September and any further endorsements could still influence final positioning before first-round voting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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