Recent polling from institutes including Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading overall intentions for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) remain closely bunched in the contest for second place. High undecided and blank/null shares (often exceeding 20%) sustain volatility in the second-vote distribution, as each elector selects two candidates. Coalition alignments tied to Governor Raquel Lyra’s base and the Popular Front further fragment support across parties. With the October 4 election weeks away, late shifts in turnout or endorsements could alter the ordering among these contenders, consistent with current trader pricing that places Costa narrowly ahead of Mendonça for second.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHumberto Costa 43%
Mendonça Filho 35%
Marília Arraes 25.0%
Túlio Gadêlha 5.4%
$33,924 Vol.
$33,924 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Humberto Costa
49%
Mendonça Filho
35%
Marília Arraes
20%
Túlio Gadêlha
5%
Eduardo da Fonte
5%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Humberto Costa 43%
Mendonça Filho 35%
Marília Arraes 25.0%
Túlio Gadêlha 5.4%
$33,924 Vol.
$33,924 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Humberto Costa
$10,817 Vol.
49%
Mendonça Filho
$9,361 Vol.
35%
Marília Arraes
$5,925 Vol.
20%
Túlio Gadêlha
$1,483 Vol.
5%
Eduardo da Fonte
$1,727 Vol.
5%
Mariano Macedo
$807 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$851 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$909 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$494 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$629 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$433 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$490 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes including Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading overall intentions for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) remain closely bunched in the contest for second place. High undecided and blank/null shares (often exceeding 20%) sustain volatility in the second-vote distribution, as each elector selects two candidates. Coalition alignments tied to Governor Raquel Lyra’s base and the Popular Front further fragment support across parties. With the October 4 election weeks away, late shifts in turnout or endorsements could alter the ordering among these contenders, consistent with current trader pricing that places Costa narrowly ahead of Mendonça for second.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$33,924Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes including Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading overall intentions for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) remain closely bunched in the contest for second place. High undecided and blank/null shares (often exceeding 20%) sustain volatility in the second-vote distribution, as each elector selects two candidates. Coalition alignments tied to Governor Raquel Lyra’s base and the Popular Front further fragment support across parties. With the October 4 election weeks away, late shifts in turnout or endorsements could alter the ordering among these contenders, consistent with current trader pricing that places Costa narrowly ahead of Mendonça for second.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$33,924Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from institutes including Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading overall intentions for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, while Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) remain closely bunched in the contest for second place. High undecided and blank/null shares (often exceeding 20%) sustain volatility in the second-vote distribution, as each elector selects two candidates. Coalition alignments tied to Governor Raquel Lyra’s base and the Popular Front further fragment support across parties. With the October 4 election weeks away, late shifts in turnout or endorsements could alter the ordering among these contenders, consistent with current trader pricing that places Costa narrowly ahead of Mendonça for second.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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