Recent Focus survey data show market economists lowering their 2026 IPCA median to 4.90 percent as of mid-September, following August’s -0.32 percent monthly reading that pulled the 12-month rate to 4.22 percent. This cooling, driven by declines in food, electricity, and transport prices, supports the near-even split between the 4.50–4.99 percent and 5.00–5.49 percent Polymarket buckets. Persistent services inflation, supply-side pressures, and fiscal stimulus continue to anchor expectations above the 4.5 percent target ceiling, while Selic projections remain steady near 13.75 percent. Traders are watching upcoming Copom communications and September–October data releases for signals on whether the annual outcome breaks below or holds above 5 percent.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato5,00-5,49% 46.9%
4,50-4,99% 38.9%
5,50-5,99% 7.3%
6,00-6,49% 2.6%
$112,367 Vol.
$112,367 Vol.
11 gen 2027
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
<1%
3,50-3,99%
1%
4,00-4,49%
2%
4,50-4,99%
39%
5,00-5,49%
47%
5,50-5,99%
7%
6,00-6,49%
3%
6,50-6,99%
<1%
7,00%+
1%
5,00-5,49% 46.9%
4,50-4,99% 38.9%
5,50-5,99% 7.3%
6,00-6,49% 2.6%
$112,367 Vol.
$112,367 Vol.
11 gen 2027
<3,00%
$6,509 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$6,401 Vol.
<1%
3,50-3,99%
$13,863 Vol.
1%
4,00-4,49%
$15,050 Vol.
2%
4,50-4,99%
$21,181 Vol.
39%
5,00-5,49%
$16,764 Vol.
47%
5,50-5,99%
$11,748 Vol.
7%
6,00-6,49%
$7,633 Vol.
3%
6,50-6,99%
$7,327 Vol.
<1%
7,00%+
$5,891 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Focus survey data show market economists lowering their 2026 IPCA median to 4.90 percent as of mid-September, following August’s -0.32 percent monthly reading that pulled the 12-month rate to 4.22 percent. This cooling, driven by declines in food, electricity, and transport prices, supports the near-even split between the 4.50–4.99 percent and 5.00–5.49 percent Polymarket buckets. Persistent services inflation, supply-side pressures, and fiscal stimulus continue to anchor expectations above the 4.5 percent target ceiling, while Selic projections remain steady near 13.75 percent. Traders are watching upcoming Copom communications and September–October data releases for signals on whether the annual outcome breaks below or holds above 5 percent.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$112,367Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Focus survey data show market economists lowering their 2026 IPCA median to 4.90 percent as of mid-September, following August’s -0.32 percent monthly reading that pulled the 12-month rate to 4.22 percent. This cooling, driven by declines in food, electricity, and transport prices, supports the near-even split between the 4.50–4.99 percent and 5.00–5.49 percent Polymarket buckets. Persistent services inflation, supply-side pressures, and fiscal stimulus continue to anchor expectations above the 4.5 percent target ceiling, while Selic projections remain steady near 13.75 percent. Traders are watching upcoming Copom communications and September–October data releases for signals on whether the annual outcome breaks below or holds above 5 percent.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$112,367Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Focus survey data show market economists lowering their 2026 IPCA median to 4.90 percent as of mid-September, following August’s -0.32 percent monthly reading that pulled the 12-month rate to 4.22 percent. This cooling, driven by declines in food, electricity, and transport prices, supports the near-even split between the 4.50–4.99 percent and 5.00–5.49 percent Polymarket buckets. Persistent services inflation, supply-side pressures, and fiscal stimulus continue to anchor expectations above the 4.5 percent target ceiling, while Selic projections remain steady near 13.75 percent. Traders are watching upcoming Copom communications and September–October data releases for signals on whether the annual outcome breaks below or holds above 5 percent.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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