Marília Arraes (PDT) leads recent polling for first place in Pernambuco's Senate race, with a September Quaest survey showing her at 17% of vote intentions compared to Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, amid a field of 12 candidates competing for two seats on October 4. The results reflect a competitive contest with high undecided and null vote shares, though Arraes maintains a numerical edge consistent with prior surveys. Traders price her at 68% implied probability for the top spot, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing her momentum and coalition support against lower odds for Costa at 15% and Mendonça Filho at 9%. Eduardo da Fonte and others trail further, with limited shifts noted in the past month.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMarília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 16.2%
Mendonça Filho 5.8%
Eduardo da Fonte 2.1%
$30,271 Vol.
$30,271 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Marília Arraes
68%
Humberto Costa
16%
Mendonça Filho
6%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 16.2%
Mendonça Filho 5.8%
Eduardo da Fonte 2.1%
$30,271 Vol.
$30,271 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Marília Arraes
$14,968 Vol.
68%
Humberto Costa
$8,517 Vol.
16%
Mendonça Filho
$1,322 Vol.
6%
Eduardo da Fonte
$857 Vol.
2%
Samuel Timoteo
$552 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$620 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$570 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$609 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$523 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$600 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$610 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads recent polling for first place in Pernambuco's Senate race, with a September Quaest survey showing her at 17% of vote intentions compared to Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, amid a field of 12 candidates competing for two seats on October 4. The results reflect a competitive contest with high undecided and null vote shares, though Arraes maintains a numerical edge consistent with prior surveys. Traders price her at 68% implied probability for the top spot, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing her momentum and coalition support against lower odds for Costa at 15% and Mendonça Filho at 9%. Eduardo da Fonte and others trail further, with limited shifts noted in the past month.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$30,271Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) leads recent polling for first place in Pernambuco's Senate race, with a September Quaest survey showing her at 17% of vote intentions compared to Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, amid a field of 12 candidates competing for two seats on October 4. The results reflect a competitive contest with high undecided and null vote shares, though Arraes maintains a numerical edge consistent with prior surveys. Traders price her at 68% implied probability for the top spot, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing her momentum and coalition support against lower odds for Costa at 15% and Mendonça Filho at 9%. Eduardo da Fonte and others trail further, with limited shifts noted in the past month.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$30,271Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) leads recent polling for first place in Pernambuco's Senate race, with a September Quaest survey showing her at 17% of vote intentions compared to Humberto Costa (PT) at 14% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, amid a field of 12 candidates competing for two seats on October 4. The results reflect a competitive contest with high undecided and null vote shares, though Arraes maintains a numerical edge consistent with prior surveys. Traders price her at 68% implied probability for the top spot, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing her momentum and coalition support against lower odds for Costa at 15% and Mendonça Filho at 9%. Eduardo da Fonte and others trail further, with limited shifts noted in the past month.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Humberto Costa otterrà il secondo maggior numero di voti nelle elezioni del Senato del Pernambuco del 2026?
43%
Sì
Will Joao Azevêdo win the most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
80%
Michelle Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle elezioni del Senato del Distretto Federale del 2026?
83%
Sì
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