Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Federal District Senate race, driven by consistent polling advantages and her confirmation as the party's top candidate alongside Bia Kicis. Recent Datafolha surveys show her at 21% overall (34% on first preference), ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 18% and Erika Kokay (PT) at 14%, with gains since August. Official PL endorsement in August, combined with her profile as former first lady and party infrastructure, has consolidated support among conservative voters ahead of the October 4 vote for two seats. Lower probabilities for other names reflect limited polling traction and fragmented opposition.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMichelle Bolsonaro 84%
Leila do Vôlei 6.7%
Bia Kicis 1.6%
Erika Kokay 1.1%
$28,662 Vol.
$28,662 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
84%
Leila do Vôlei
7%
Bia Kicis
2%
Erika Kokay
1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Marley
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 84%
Leila do Vôlei 6.7%
Bia Kicis 1.6%
Erika Kokay 1.1%
$28,662 Vol.
$28,662 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$12,392 Vol.
84%
Leila do Vôlei
$4,387 Vol.
7%
Bia Kicis
$4,333 Vol.
2%
Erika Kokay
$2,026 Vol.
1%
Avenir Rosa
$801 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$505 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$794 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$795 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$674 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$556 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$489 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$530 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Federal District Senate race, driven by consistent polling advantages and her confirmation as the party's top candidate alongside Bia Kicis. Recent Datafolha surveys show her at 21% overall (34% on first preference), ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 18% and Erika Kokay (PT) at 14%, with gains since August. Official PL endorsement in August, combined with her profile as former first lady and party infrastructure, has consolidated support among conservative voters ahead of the October 4 vote for two seats. Lower probabilities for other names reflect limited polling traction and fragmented opposition.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$28,662Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Federal District Senate race, driven by consistent polling advantages and her confirmation as the party's top candidate alongside Bia Kicis. Recent Datafolha surveys show her at 21% overall (34% on first preference), ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 18% and Erika Kokay (PT) at 14%, with gains since August. Official PL endorsement in August, combined with her profile as former first lady and party infrastructure, has consolidated support among conservative voters ahead of the October 4 vote for two seats. Lower probabilities for other names reflect limited polling traction and fragmented opposition.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,662Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in the Federal District Senate race, driven by consistent polling advantages and her confirmation as the party's top candidate alongside Bia Kicis. Recent Datafolha surveys show her at 21% overall (34% on first preference), ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT) at 18% and Erika Kokay (PT) at 14%, with gains since August. Official PL endorsement in August, combined with her profile as former first lady and party infrastructure, has consolidated support among conservative voters ahead of the October 4 vote for two seats. Lower probabilities for other names reflect limited polling traction and fragmented opposition.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Leila do Vôlei otterrà il secondo maggior numero di voti nelle elezioni del Senato del Distretto Federale del 2026?
52%
Sì
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
72%
Eduardo Braga otterrà il maggior numero di voti nelle elezioni del Senato dell'Amazzonia del 2026?
81%
Sì
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