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icon for Elezioni al Senato di San Paolo: 2° posto
Politica·Brasile

Elezioni al Senato di San Paolo: 2° posto

icon for Elezioni al Senato di San Paolo: 2° posto
Politica·Brasile

Elezioni al Senato di San Paolo: 2° posto

André do Prado 35.9%

Marina Silva 26%

Simone Tebet 15%

Guilherme Derrite 14%

Polymarket

$45,357 Vol.

André do Prado 35.9%

Marina Silva 26%

Simone Tebet 15%

Guilherme Derrite 14%

Polymarket

$45,357 Vol.

icon for André do Prado

André do Prado

$6,227 Vol.

36%

icon for Marina Silva

Marina Silva

$10,865 Vol.

26%

icon for Simone Tebet

Simone Tebet

$10,541 Vol.

15%

icon for Guilherme Derrite

Guilherme Derrite

$7,259 Vol.

14%

icon for Salles

Salles

$5,220 Vol.

3%

icon for Marcio Alves

Marcio Alves

$411 Vol.

1%

icon for Ednelson Cesaretti

Ednelson Cesaretti

$580 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Rufino

Geraldo Rufino

$528 Vol.

<1%

icon for Petter Maahs

Petter Maahs

$757 Vol.

<1%

icon for Weller Gonçalves

Weller Gonçalves

$813 Vol.

<1%

icon for William Teixeira

William Teixeira

$686 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dott.ssa Eliana Ferreira

Dott.ssa Eliana Ferreira

$457 Vol.

<1%

icon for Maíra de Souza

Maíra de Souza

$406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Soninha Francine

Soninha Francine

$608 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,357
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Recent polling shows a tight contest among top contenders for the two São Paulo Senate seats on October 4, 2026, with each voter selecting up to two candidates.** A September 8 Quaest survey placed Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) tied at 14%, Simone Tebet (PSB) at 12%, André do Prado (PL) at 7%, and Ricardo Salles (Novo) at 3%, amid roughly 45% undecided or blank/null responses. Earlier Datafolha and Quaest releases from July–August reflected similar clustering within margins of error. Marina Silva and Simone Tebet run on the “Desperta São Paulo” coalition tied to Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial bid, drawing support from PT-aligned and center-left voters. Derrite (PP) and Prado (PL) represent the Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) grouping, emphasizing security and state-government alignment. Salles campaigns more independently on the right. The two-vote system, elevated indecision, and polarized national alignments have sustained the close positioning for second place. Trader pricing reflects this balance, with modest recent shifts following the start of free broadcast time in late August. Further separation would likely require clearer polling trends, major endorsements, debates, or late developments altering visibility or turnout among key blocs before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$45,357
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

Correlati

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53%
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Domande frequenti

"Elezioni al Senato di San Paolo: 2° posto" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 14 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "André do Prado" a 36%, seguito da "Marina Silva" a 26%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 36¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 36% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Elezioni al Senato di San Paolo: 2° posto" ha generato $45.4K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Aug 17, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Elezioni al Senato di San Paolo: 2° posto", esplora i 14 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Elezioni al Senato di San Paolo: 2° posto" è "André do Prado" a 36%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 36% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Marina Silva" a 26%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Elezioni al Senato di San Paolo: 2° posto" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.