Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures reaching +2.8 °C in early September 2026 and forecast to intensify further, represent the dominant driver elevating global temperatures and underpinning the market's 87.5% implied probability for a second-hottest September. Provisional ERA5-based estimates place the month on track to exceed or closely approach the September 2023 record of roughly 16.38 °C, aided by long-term anthropogenic warming and positive Indian Ocean Dipole influences, though model spreads and remaining monthly variability introduce uncertainty around whether it secures first place (currently at 10.5% implied odds). Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño events and official agency monitoring confirm that peak ENSO impacts on global means typically lag by several months, supporting trader consensus while highlighting sensitivity to final observational revisions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSettembre 2026 1°, 2° o 3° più caldo mai registrato?
Settembre 2026 1°, 2° o 3° più caldo mai registrato?
Secondo più caldo 82%
Il più caldo 11%
3° più caldo 6.0%
Quarto o inferiore 5.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
Il più caldo
11%
Secondo più caldo
88%
3° più caldo
6%
Quarto o inferiore
5%
Secondo più caldo 82%
Il più caldo 11%
3° più caldo 6.0%
Quarto o inferiore 5.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 set 2026
Il più caldo
$349 Vol.
11%
Secondo più caldo
$1 Vol.
88%
3° più caldo
$191 Vol.
6%
Quarto o inferiore
$250 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures reaching +2.8 °C in early September 2026 and forecast to intensify further, represent the dominant driver elevating global temperatures and underpinning the market's 87.5% implied probability for a second-hottest September. Provisional ERA5-based estimates place the month on track to exceed or closely approach the September 2023 record of roughly 16.38 °C, aided by long-term anthropogenic warming and positive Indian Ocean Dipole influences, though model spreads and remaining monthly variability introduce uncertainty around whether it secures first place (currently at 10.5% implied odds). Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño events and official agency monitoring confirm that peak ENSO impacts on global means typically lag by several months, supporting trader consensus while highlighting sensitivity to final observational revisions.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$791Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures reaching +2.8 °C in early September 2026 and forecast to intensify further, represent the dominant driver elevating global temperatures and underpinning the market's 87.5% implied probability for a second-hottest September. Provisional ERA5-based estimates place the month on track to exceed or closely approach the September 2023 record of roughly 16.38 °C, aided by long-term anthropogenic warming and positive Indian Ocean Dipole influences, though model spreads and remaining monthly variability introduce uncertainty around whether it secures first place (currently at 10.5% implied odds). Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño events and official agency monitoring confirm that peak ENSO impacts on global means typically lag by several months, supporting trader consensus while highlighting sensitivity to final observational revisions.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$791Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures reaching +2.8 °C in early September 2026 and forecast to intensify further, represent the dominant driver elevating global temperatures and underpinning the market's 87.5% implied probability for a second-hottest September. Provisional ERA5-based estimates place the month on track to exceed or closely approach the September 2023 record of roughly 16.38 °C, aided by long-term anthropogenic warming and positive Indian Ocean Dipole influences, though model spreads and remaining monthly variability introduce uncertainty around whether it secures first place (currently at 10.5% implied odds). Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño events and official agency monitoring confirm that peak ENSO impacts on global means typically lag by several months, supporting trader consensus while highlighting sensitivity to final observational revisions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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