**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 95% reflects the low global rate of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, estimated at roughly 1–3 per century based on subduction zone recurrence intervals and moment conservation principles from USGS and peer-reviewed analyses.** Only five such events have occurred since 1900, with the most recent in 2011; the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8, while among the largest in recent decades, fell short of the threshold. Paleoseismic and geodetic data show typical return times of centuries for full-margin megathrust ruptures capable of M9+ on major faults, making occurrence in the remaining ~16 months statistically improbable absent unusual clustering. A realistic shift could occur if new monitoring revealed accelerated strain accumulation or an unexpected multi-segment rupture, though current USGS seismic catalogs show no such precursors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato9.0 o superiore prima del 2027?
9.0 o superiore prima del 2027?
Sì
5% probabilità
$315,217 Vol.
$315,217 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$315,217 Vol.
$315,217 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 95% reflects the low global rate of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, estimated at roughly 1–3 per century based on subduction zone recurrence intervals and moment conservation principles from USGS and peer-reviewed analyses.**
Only five such events have occurred since 1900, with the most recent in 2011; the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8, while among the largest in recent decades, fell short of the threshold. Paleoseismic and geodetic data show typical return times of centuries for full-margin megathrust ruptures capable of M9+ on major faults, making occurrence in the remaining ~16 months statistically improbable absent unusual clustering.
A realistic shift could occur if new monitoring revealed accelerated strain accumulation or an unexpected multi-segment rupture, though current USGS seismic catalogs show no such precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$315,217Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 95% reflects the low global rate of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, estimated at roughly 1–3 per century based on subduction zone recurrence intervals and moment conservation principles from USGS and peer-reviewed analyses.**
Only five such events have occurred since 1900, with the most recent in 2011; the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8, while among the largest in recent decades, fell short of the threshold. Paleoseismic and geodetic data show typical return times of centuries for full-margin megathrust ruptures capable of M9+ on major faults, making occurrence in the remaining ~16 months statistically improbable absent unusual clustering.
A realistic shift could occur if new monitoring revealed accelerated strain accumulation or an unexpected multi-segment rupture, though current USGS seismic catalogs show no such precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$315,217Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 95% reflects the low global rate of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, estimated at roughly 1–3 per century based on subduction zone recurrence intervals and moment conservation principles from USGS and peer-reviewed analyses.** Only five such events have occurred since 1900, with the most recent in 2011; the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8, while among the largest in recent decades, fell short of the threshold. Paleoseismic and geodetic data show typical return times of centuries for full-margin megathrust ruptures capable of M9+ on major faults, making occurrence in the remaining ~16 months statistically improbable absent unusual clustering. A realistic shift could occur if new monitoring revealed accelerated strain accumulation or an unexpected multi-segment rupture, though current USGS seismic catalogs show no such precursors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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