Recent official analyses from Copernicus and Berkeley Earth place the August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant 1.38–1.41 °C bin. A strengthening El Niño has boosted tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures to record levels, while the long-term anthropogenic warming trend—roughly 0.2 °C per decade—amplifies monthly peaks. These factors, combined with already elevated baseline ocean heat content, have produced the observed outcome with high consistency across datasets. The 98.8 % market-implied probability reflects this convergence of verified observations. Final dataset revisions or adjustments to the precise pre-industrial reference period remain the main realistic pathways that could shift the resolved value outside the leading range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAgosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC) (COLPI PIÙ ALTI)
Agosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC) (COLPI PIÙ ALTI)
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 Vol.
$20,752 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 Vol.
$20,752 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 Vol.
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 Vol.
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,263 Vol.
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent official analyses from Copernicus and Berkeley Earth place the August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant 1.38–1.41 °C bin. A strengthening El Niño has boosted tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures to record levels, while the long-term anthropogenic warming trend—roughly 0.2 °C per decade—amplifies monthly peaks. These factors, combined with already elevated baseline ocean heat content, have produced the observed outcome with high consistency across datasets. The 98.8 % market-implied probability reflects this convergence of verified observations. Final dataset revisions or adjustments to the precise pre-industrial reference period remain the main realistic pathways that could shift the resolved value outside the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,752Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent official analyses from Copernicus and Berkeley Earth place the August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant 1.38–1.41 °C bin. A strengthening El Niño has boosted tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures to record levels, while the long-term anthropogenic warming trend—roughly 0.2 °C per decade—amplifies monthly peaks. These factors, combined with already elevated baseline ocean heat content, have produced the observed outcome with high consistency across datasets. The 98.8 % market-implied probability reflects this convergence of verified observations. Final dataset revisions or adjustments to the precise pre-industrial reference period remain the main realistic pathways that could shift the resolved value outside the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,752Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent official analyses from Copernicus and Berkeley Earth place the August 2026 global surface temperature anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant 1.38–1.41 °C bin. A strengthening El Niño has boosted tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures to record levels, while the long-term anthropogenic warming trend—roughly 0.2 °C per decade—amplifies monthly peaks. These factors, combined with already elevated baseline ocean heat content, have produced the observed outcome with high consistency across datasets. The 98.8 % market-implied probability reflects this convergence of verified observations. Final dataset revisions or adjustments to the precise pre-industrial reference period remain the main realistic pathways that could shift the resolved value outside the leading range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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