The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election features a tight five-party contest, with recent polls showing the CDU, Die Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD clustered between roughly 14% and 21%. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under the Wegner senate faces an uncertain path to continuation, as two-party majorities appear mathematically difficult. Traders are focused on likely three-party outcomes: a Kenya coalition (CDU-SPD-Greens) or red-red-green (SPD-Greens-Linke), given the established firewall excluding AfD cooperation. A September 9 search warrant targeting SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach adds late volatility, while first-time voting by 16- and 17-year-olds and simplified ballots could influence turnout. Coalition negotiations will determine the next governing parties after results.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Verts
90%
SPD
89%
Linke
50%
CDU
28%
FW
4%
FDP
4%
BSW
3%
AfD
2%
$6,750 Vol.
Verts
$242 Vol.
90%
SPD
$249 Vol.
89%
Linke
$2,227 Vol.
50%
CDU
$1,602 Vol.
28%
FW
$661 Vol.
4%
FDP
$210 Vol.
4%
BSW
$290 Vol.
3%
AfD
$1,269 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election features a tight five-party contest, with recent polls showing the CDU, Die Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD clustered between roughly 14% and 21%. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under the Wegner senate faces an uncertain path to continuation, as two-party majorities appear mathematically difficult. Traders are focused on likely three-party outcomes: a Kenya coalition (CDU-SPD-Greens) or red-red-green (SPD-Greens-Linke), given the established firewall excluding AfD cooperation. A September 9 search warrant targeting SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach adds late volatility, while first-time voting by 16- and 17-year-olds and simplified ballots could influence turnout. Coalition negotiations will determine the next governing parties after results.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$6,750Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election features a tight five-party contest, with recent polls showing the CDU, Die Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD clustered between roughly 14% and 21%. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under the Wegner senate faces an uncertain path to continuation, as two-party majorities appear mathematically difficult. Traders are focused on likely three-party outcomes: a Kenya coalition (CDU-SPD-Greens) or red-red-green (SPD-Greens-Linke), given the established firewall excluding AfD cooperation. A September 9 search warrant targeting SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach adds late volatility, while first-time voting by 16- and 17-year-olds and simplified ballots could influence turnout. Coalition negotiations will determine the next governing parties after results.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$6,750Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026, Berlin state election features a tight five-party contest, with recent polls showing the CDU, Die Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD clustered between roughly 14% and 21%. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under the Wegner senate faces an uncertain path to continuation, as two-party majorities appear mathematically difficult. Traders are focused on likely three-party outcomes: a Kenya coalition (CDU-SPD-Greens) or red-red-green (SPD-Greens-Linke), given the established firewall excluding AfD cooperation. A September 9 search warrant targeting SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach adds late volatility, while first-time voting by 16- and 17-year-olds and simplified ballots could influence turnout. Coalition negotiations will determine the next governing parties after results.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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