Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD near 18 percent, up sharply from its 9.1 percent result in 2023, as the party benefits from national momentum after its strong Saxony-Anhalt performance and voter concerns over immigration, housing costs, and crime. Multiple surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey in late August and early September show the AfD clustered with the CDU, Linke, and Greens in a tight 15–21 percent range amid a fragmented field where no two-party coalition commands a majority. Traders assign the highest probability to the 17–20 percent band because AfD support has stabilized around these levels in recent fieldwork, though the party’s post-Saxony-Anhalt tailwinds leave open a meaningful chance of exceeding 20 percent on election day. Other parties continue to rule out governing coalitions with the AfD.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour17-20 % 47%
20 %+ 32%
14-17 % 20%
<14 % 4.3%
$19,322 Vol.
$19,322 Vol.
20 sept. 2026
<14 %
4%
14-17 %
20%
17-20 %
47%
20 %+
32%
17-20 % 47%
20 %+ 32%
14-17 % 20%
<14 % 4.3%
$19,322 Vol.
$19,322 Vol.
20 sept. 2026
<14 %
$3,083 Vol.
4%
14-17 %
$4,169 Vol.
20%
17-20 %
$4,258 Vol.
47%
20 %+
$7,813 Vol.
32%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD near 18 percent, up sharply from its 9.1 percent result in 2023, as the party benefits from national momentum after its strong Saxony-Anhalt performance and voter concerns over immigration, housing costs, and crime. Multiple surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey in late August and early September show the AfD clustered with the CDU, Linke, and Greens in a tight 15–21 percent range amid a fragmented field where no two-party coalition commands a majority. Traders assign the highest probability to the 17–20 percent band because AfD support has stabilized around these levels in recent fieldwork, though the party’s post-Saxony-Anhalt tailwinds leave open a meaningful chance of exceeding 20 percent on election day. Other parties continue to rule out governing coalitions with the AfD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$19,322Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD near 18 percent, up sharply from its 9.1 percent result in 2023, as the party benefits from national momentum after its strong Saxony-Anhalt performance and voter concerns over immigration, housing costs, and crime. Multiple surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey in late August and early September show the AfD clustered with the CDU, Linke, and Greens in a tight 15–21 percent range amid a fragmented field where no two-party coalition commands a majority. Traders assign the highest probability to the 17–20 percent band because AfD support has stabilized around these levels in recent fieldwork, though the party’s post-Saxony-Anhalt tailwinds leave open a meaningful chance of exceeding 20 percent on election day. Other parties continue to rule out governing coalitions with the AfD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$19,322Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD near 18 percent, up sharply from its 9.1 percent result in 2023, as the party benefits from national momentum after its strong Saxony-Anhalt performance and voter concerns over immigration, housing costs, and crime. Multiple surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey in late August and early September show the AfD clustered with the CDU, Linke, and Greens in a tight 15–21 percent range amid a fragmented field where no two-party coalition commands a majority. Traders assign the highest probability to the 17–20 percent band because AfD support has stabilized around these levels in recent fieldwork, though the party’s post-Saxony-Anhalt tailwinds leave open a meaningful chance of exceeding 20 percent on election day. Other parties continue to rule out governing coalitions with the AfD.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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