Recent polling and campaign dynamics in the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election have kept AfD seat projections tightly clustered around the mid-to-high 20s. The party has roughly doubled its 2023 result amid national momentum following strong performances elsewhere in eastern states, yet Berlin-specific surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA place it at 17–18 percent—behind Die Linke and the CDU—translating to roughly 25–30 seats under the personalized proportional system with its 5 percent threshold and variable total mandates. Late undecided voters, turnout variations in key districts, and the final distribution of overhang and leveling seats among the five parties clearing the hurdle introduce the main sources of uncertainty, preventing any single outcome range from pulling decisively ahead in trader assessments.