**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl shows Die Linke holding steady near the 11% threshold, supporting traders’ 75% implied probability on the “Under.”** Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap (August 26–31: 11%), Forsa (August 21–27: 11%), and INSA (August 4–11: 11%) place the party at or just above this level, consistent with earlier 2026 readings that have ranged from 10–13% but clustered around 11% in the final stretch. The SPD-Linke governing coalition trails the AfD in the overall vote and risks losing its majority, yet Linke’s own support has shown little movement amid SPD gains and the emergence of BSW (around 4%). With the election only days away, these stable figures—close to the 9.9% result from 2021—drive the market consensus that Linke is unlikely to clear 11% decisively, though minor late shifts in turnout or preference among left-leaning voters could still affect the final share.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAu-dessus
29% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
Au-dessus
29% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl shows Die Linke holding steady near the 11% threshold, supporting traders’ 75% implied probability on the “Under.”**
Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap (August 26–31: 11%), Forsa (August 21–27: 11%), and INSA (August 4–11: 11%) place the party at or just above this level, consistent with earlier 2026 readings that have ranged from 10–13% but clustered around 11% in the final stretch. The SPD-Linke governing coalition trails the AfD in the overall vote and risks losing its majority, yet Linke’s own support has shown little movement amid SPD gains and the emergence of BSW (around 4%).
With the election only days away, these stable figures—close to the 9.9% result from 2021—drive the market consensus that Linke is unlikely to clear 11% decisively, though minor late shifts in turnout or preference among left-leaning voters could still affect the final share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,019Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl shows Die Linke holding steady near the 11% threshold, supporting traders’ 75% implied probability on the “Under.”**
Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap (August 26–31: 11%), Forsa (August 21–27: 11%), and INSA (August 4–11: 11%) place the party at or just above this level, consistent with earlier 2026 readings that have ranged from 10–13% but clustered around 11% in the final stretch. The SPD-Linke governing coalition trails the AfD in the overall vote and risks losing its majority, yet Linke’s own support has shown little movement amid SPD gains and the emergence of BSW (around 4%).
With the election only days away, these stable figures—close to the 9.9% result from 2021—drive the market consensus that Linke is unlikely to clear 11% decisively, though minor late shifts in turnout or preference among left-leaning voters could still affect the final share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$1,019Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtagswahl shows Die Linke holding steady near the 11% threshold, supporting traders’ 75% implied probability on the “Under.”** Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap (August 26–31: 11%), Forsa (August 21–27: 11%), and INSA (August 4–11: 11%) place the party at or just above this level, consistent with earlier 2026 readings that have ranged from 10–13% but clustered around 11% in the final stretch. The SPD-Linke governing coalition trails the AfD in the overall vote and risks losing its majority, yet Linke’s own support has shown little movement amid SPD gains and the emergence of BSW (around 4%). With the election only days away, these stable figures—close to the 9.9% result from 2021—drive the market consensus that Linke is unlikely to clear 11% decisively, though minor late shifts in turnout or preference among left-leaning voters could still affect the final share.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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