Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party receiving between 39% and 44% of voting intentions, placing him in a tight contest with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who trails closely in most surveys. The fragmented field, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, continues to split conservative support and keeps Lula’s share from pulling decisively ahead. Late-campaign volatility, stable government approval ratings, and comparable rejection levels between the two frontrunners have sustained this narrow range in trader assessments. Final turnout patterns among swing voters and any last-minute shifts in second-tier candidate support could still alter the exact bracket before ballots close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour44 %+ 47%
41-44 % 43%
38-41 % 6%
35-38 % 3.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
<35 %
1%
35-38 %
4%
38-41 %
6%
41-44 %
43%
44 %+
47%
44 %+ 47%
41-44 % 43%
38-41 % 6%
35-38 % 3.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
<35 %
$485 Vol.
1%
35-38 %
$618 Vol.
4%
38-41 %
$1,180 Vol.
6%
41-44 %
$1,623 Vol.
43%
44 %+
$2,077 Vol.
47%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party receiving between 39% and 44% of voting intentions, placing him in a tight contest with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who trails closely in most surveys. The fragmented field, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, continues to split conservative support and keeps Lula’s share from pulling decisively ahead. Late-campaign volatility, stable government approval ratings, and comparable rejection levels between the two frontrunners have sustained this narrow range in trader assessments. Final turnout patterns among swing voters and any last-minute shifts in second-tier candidate support could still alter the exact bracket before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volume
$5,984Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party receiving between 39% and 44% of voting intentions, placing him in a tight contest with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who trails closely in most surveys. The fragmented field, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, continues to split conservative support and keeps Lula’s share from pulling decisively ahead. Late-campaign volatility, stable government approval ratings, and comparable rejection levels between the two frontrunners have sustained this narrow range in trader assessments. Final turnout patterns among swing voters and any last-minute shifts in second-tier candidate support could still alter the exact bracket before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,984Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party receiving between 39% and 44% of voting intentions, placing him in a tight contest with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who trails closely in most surveys. The fragmented field, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, continues to split conservative support and keeps Lula’s share from pulling decisively ahead. Late-campaign volatility, stable government approval ratings, and comparable rejection levels between the two frontrunners have sustained this narrow range in trader assessments. Final turnout patterns among swing voters and any last-minute shifts in second-tier candidate support could still alter the exact bracket before ballots close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Flávio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il 39 % ou plus des suffrages valides au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
89%
Oui
Renan Santos obtiendra-t-il entre 2 % et 4 % des votes valides au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
41%
Oui
Augusto Cury obtiendra-t-il entre 4 % et 6 % des suffrages valides au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
42%
Oui
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