**Eric Girard, the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) MNA and long-serving Finance Minister, holds a commanding position in the Groulx riding ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election.** Projections from early September place CAQ support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range locally, translating to roughly 70 percent implied probability of victory under current polling trends and the first-past-the-post system. Girard benefits from incumbency in a suburban Montreal-area riding that delivered him 47.7 percent in 2022, alongside established name recognition and the CAQ’s organizational edge. Marie-Claude Sarrazin of the Parti Québécois trails as the clearest alternative at around one-quarter implied probability, consistent with PQ’s lower projected share in the low-to-mid 20s. Other declared candidates, including Québec solidaire’s Marie-Noëlle Aubertin and the Liberal Party’s Julie Tourangeau, register negligible odds, reflecting limited recent momentum for those parties in the riding. The short campaign window, with nominations closing mid-September and advance voting already underway, leaves little time for late shifts that could meaningfully alter the current trader consensus.