The dominant 82.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max reflects Anthropic’s recent model release and strong benchmark results that have positioned it ahead of prior Opus variants in trader assessments of overall capability. Market sentiment favors this version due to demonstrated gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and safety alignments that outpace the lower-probability Opus 5 and 4-6 iterations. With resolution just days away, limited new announcements or competing releases from other labs have kept alternative outcomes in the 15% “Other” bucket, underscoring how quickly developer updates can shift consensus in fast-moving AI evaluations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourclaude-fable-5.1-max 83%
Autre 15%
claude-opus-5-max 4.3%
claude-opus-5-high 1.4%
$12,960 Vol.
$12,960 Vol.
claude-fable-5.1-max
83%
Autre
15%
claude-opus-5-max
4%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 83%
Autre 15%
claude-opus-5-max 4.3%
claude-opus-5-high 1.4%
$12,960 Vol.
$12,960 Vol.
claude-fable-5.1-max
83%
Autre
15%
claude-opus-5-max
4%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 82.5% implied probability for claude-fable-5.1-max reflects Anthropic’s recent model release and strong benchmark results that have positioned it ahead of prior Opus variants in trader assessments of overall capability. Market sentiment favors this version due to demonstrated gains in reasoning, multimodal performance, and safety alignments that outpace the lower-probability Opus 5 and 4-6 iterations. With resolution just days away, limited new announcements or competing releases from other labs have kept alternative outcomes in the 15% “Other” bucket, underscoring how quickly developer updates can shift consensus in fast-moving AI evaluations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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