Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has positioned it atop multiple independent leaderboards, including BenchAlign and several coding and reasoning benchmarks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds that the company will hold the top large language model by end of September. The model’s strong performance on Terminal-Bench and agentic tasks has widened its lead over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later and currently trailing slightly in supported evaluations. With no comparable frontier releases scheduled from Google, Meta, or other labs before month-end, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting the ranking. The “Style Control On” condition further narrows focus to demonstrated capabilities rather than marketing claims, reinforcing the current consensus backed by real-money positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 87%
OpenAI 8.5%
Meta 3.9%
Google 1.8%
$97,473 Vol.
$97,473 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Anthropic
87%
OpenAI
9%
Meta
4%
2%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87%
OpenAI 8.5%
Meta 3.9%
Google 1.8%
$97,473 Vol.
$97,473 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Anthropic
$42,008 Vol.
87%
OpenAI
$11,870 Vol.
9%
Meta
$10,028 Vol.
4%
$5,906 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$2,852 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,372 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,229 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$3,956 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has positioned it atop multiple independent leaderboards, including BenchAlign and several coding and reasoning benchmarks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds that the company will hold the top large language model by end of September. The model’s strong performance on Terminal-Bench and agentic tasks has widened its lead over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later and currently trailing slightly in supported evaluations. With no comparable frontier releases scheduled from Google, Meta, or other labs before month-end, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting the ranking. The “Style Control On” condition further narrows focus to demonstrated capabilities rather than marketing claims, reinforcing the current consensus backed by real-money positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$97,473Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has positioned it atop multiple independent leaderboards, including BenchAlign and several coding and reasoning benchmarks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds that the company will hold the top large language model by end of September. The model’s strong performance on Terminal-Bench and agentic tasks has widened its lead over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later and currently trailing slightly in supported evaluations. With no comparable frontier releases scheduled from Google, Meta, or other labs before month-end, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting the ranking. The “Style Control On” condition further narrows focus to demonstrated capabilities rather than marketing claims, reinforcing the current consensus backed by real-money positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$97,473Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has positioned it atop multiple independent leaderboards, including BenchAlign and several coding and reasoning benchmarks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds that the company will hold the top large language model by end of September. The model’s strong performance on Terminal-Bench and agentic tasks has widened its lead over OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later and currently trailing slightly in supported evaluations. With no comparable frontier releases scheduled from Google, Meta, or other labs before month-end, traders see limited near-term catalysts capable of shifting the ranking. The “Style Control On” condition further narrows focus to demonstrated capabilities rather than marketing claims, reinforcing the current consensus backed by real-money positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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