The overwhelming 94% market-implied odds for claude-fable-5.1-max reflect Anthropic’s recent model releases and strong benchmark results in areas such as reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks, positioning it ahead of rivals in the current competitive landscape. Traders view this lead as stable given the short timeframe to September 14 and the absence of major counter-releases in the past week. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unexpected capability demonstration or update from competitors like OpenAI or Google DeepMind, new third-party evaluations that reorder the leaderboard, or last-minute adjustments in how “best” is defined for market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourclaude-fable-5.1-max 94%
Autre 3.0%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
$35,240 Vol.
$35,240 Vol.
claude-fable-5.1-max
94%
Autre
3%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-5-high
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 94%
Autre 3.0%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
$35,240 Vol.
$35,240 Vol.
claude-fable-5.1-max
94%
Autre
3%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-5-high
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The overwhelming 94% market-implied odds for claude-fable-5.1-max reflect Anthropic’s recent model releases and strong benchmark results in areas such as reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks, positioning it ahead of rivals in the current competitive landscape. Traders view this lead as stable given the short timeframe to September 14 and the absence of major counter-releases in the past week. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unexpected capability demonstration or update from competitors like OpenAI or Google DeepMind, new third-party evaluations that reorder the leaderboard, or last-minute adjustments in how “best” is defined for market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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