Tristan Buckmaster’s public allegations of OpenAI misconduct form the main driver behind the modest implied probabilities in this market. The NYU mathematician claims OpenAI researchers, including Sébastien Bubeck, pressured him during September calls to exclude his Anthropic collaborator Levent Alpöge from authorship on Navier-Stokes work, raised implicit career threats, and may have benefited from drafts stored in private Codex sessions—an OpenAI large language model tool. OpenAI has categorically denied accessing or training on his data and defended its team’s integrity while highlighting its independent, compute-intensive proof of the Millennium Prize problem. No lawsuit has been filed as of mid-September 2026, but the episode underscores tensions around AI-assisted math research, data provenance, and competitive lab dynamics. Resolution hinges on whether Buckmaster pursues claims such as misappropriation or defamation before the market deadlines.