Mara Rocha leads trader consensus for second place in Acre’s October 4 Senate contest because recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys place her ahead or tied in second-vote scenarios, buoyed by Republicanos party machinery and an alliance with gubernatorial frontrunner Alan Rick. Incumbent Marcio Bittar and former governor Gladson Camelí draw stronger first-preference support, leaving a fragmented field where Rocha’s name recognition from her 2018 federal deputy win and 2022 gubernatorial run gives her an edge for the remaining seat. Jorge Viana and Petecão trail further back amid lower consolidated numbers, while minor candidates register negligible shares. The open race, with many voters still undecided or open to switching preferences before election day, sustains elevated implied probabilities for Rocha relative to the rest of the field.