Wyoming’s at-large congressional district maintains one of the nation’s strongest Republican leans, with the seat in GOP hands since 1978 and consistent double-digit margins in recent presidential and statewide voting. Chuck Gray secured the Republican nomination in the August 18, 2026 primary with 25 percent in a crowded field, advancing as the clear favorite against Democrat Lisa Kinney, who won her party’s primary. Forecasts rate the race solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that places Gray above 97 percent. The outcome could shift only under extraordinary late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge, though the state’s partisan fundamentals and registration edge make such changes unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWY-AL House Election Winner
WY-AL House Election Winner
$44,335 Vol.
$44,335 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chuck Gray (R)
98%
Lisa Kinney (D)
<1%
$44,335 Vol.
$44,335 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chuck Gray (R)
$20,354 Vol.
98%
Lisa Kinney (D)
$23,981 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming’s at-large congressional district maintains one of the nation’s strongest Republican leans, with the seat in GOP hands since 1978 and consistent double-digit margins in recent presidential and statewide voting. Chuck Gray secured the Republican nomination in the August 18, 2026 primary with 25 percent in a crowded field, advancing as the clear favorite against Democrat Lisa Kinney, who won her party’s primary. Forecasts rate the race solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that places Gray above 97 percent. The outcome could shift only under extraordinary late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge, though the state’s partisan fundamentals and registration edge make such changes unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$44,335End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming’s at-large congressional district maintains one of the nation’s strongest Republican leans, with the seat in GOP hands since 1978 and consistent double-digit margins in recent presidential and statewide voting. Chuck Gray secured the Republican nomination in the August 18, 2026 primary with 25 percent in a crowded field, advancing as the clear favorite against Democrat Lisa Kinney, who won her party’s primary. Forecasts rate the race solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that places Gray above 97 percent. The outcome could shift only under extraordinary late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge, though the state’s partisan fundamentals and registration edge make such changes unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,335End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wyoming’s at-large congressional district maintains one of the nation’s strongest Republican leans, with the seat in GOP hands since 1978 and consistent double-digit margins in recent presidential and statewide voting. Chuck Gray secured the Republican nomination in the August 18, 2026 primary with 25 percent in a crowded field, advancing as the clear favorite against Democrat Lisa Kinney, who won her party’s primary. Forecasts rate the race solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that places Gray above 97 percent. The outcome could shift only under extraordinary late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented turnout surge, though the state’s partisan fundamentals and registration edge make such changes unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions