**Recent polling and the October 27 election timeline shape trader views on whether a new Israeli government can secure a Knesset vote of confidence by year-end.** The 25th Knesset dissolved in July after completing its full term, leaving the Netanyahu-led coalition in caretaker status. Latest surveys from early September show the pro-Netanyahu bloc projected at roughly 47–54 seats and the main opposition bloc around 52–57 seats in the 120-seat chamber, with Arab parties holding the balance and neither side assured of a 61-seat majority. Coalition formation in Israel’s multi-party system typically requires extended negotiations over portfolios, policy concessions, and draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox parties. Historical patterns indicate that even when a majority emerges, the process often extends beyond six weeks. With polls pointing to a possible hung outcome or narrow pluralities, traders assign a modest edge to the probability that no government passes its confidence vote before December 31. Key variables that could still alter timing include final list mergers, turnout shifts among swing voters, or rapid agreement among centrist and right-leaning opposition parties.