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icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$770,307 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$770,307 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$114,702 Vol.

9%

icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$358,541 Vol.

9%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$12,518 Vol.

7%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$16,910 Vol.

7%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$13,477 Vol.

6%

icon for Syria

Syria

$21,430 Vol.

5%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$9,839 Vol.

5%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$19,982 Vol.

5%

icon for North Korea

North Korea

$20,306 Vol.

4%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$36,705 Vol.

4%

icon for Iran

Iran

$16,688 Vol.

4%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$11,994 Vol.

4%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$13,211 Vol.

4%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$20,787 Vol.

4%

icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$69,864 Vol.

4%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$13,354 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic momentum centers on potential expansions of the Abraham Accords framework amid stalled Saudi-Israeli normalization, which remains conditioned on credible progress toward Palestinian statehood. Syria’s post-Assad leadership has advanced security talks with Israel since late 2025, with statements in July 2026 signaling pursuit of a broader agreement. Lebanon signed a June 2026 trilateral framework with the United States and Israel focused on Hezbollah disarmament as a prerequisite for further steps. Kazakhstan acceded to the Accords in late 2025, while Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland marked a new bilateral tie. Broader regional barriers persist due to the unresolved Gaza conflict and domestic political pressures ahead of Israel’s scheduled October 2026 elections. Traders monitor U.S. diplomatic initiatives and any breakthrough announcements within the remaining resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$770,307
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic momentum centers on potential expansions of the Abraham Accords framework amid stalled Saudi-Israeli normalization, which remains conditioned on credible progress toward Palestinian statehood. Syria’s post-Assad leadership has advanced security talks with Israel since late 2025, with statements in July 2026 signaling pursuit of a broader agreement. Lebanon signed a June 2026 trilateral framework with the United States and Israel focused on Hezbollah disarmament as a prerequisite for further steps. Kazakhstan acceded to the Accords in late 2025, while Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland marked a new bilateral tie. Broader regional barriers persist due to the unresolved Gaza conflict and domestic political pressures ahead of Israel’s scheduled October 2026 elections. Traders monitor U.S. diplomatic initiatives and any breakthrough announcements within the remaining resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$770,307
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lebanon" at 9%, followed by "Venezuela" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" has generated $770.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is "Lebanon" at just 9%, with "Venezuela" close behind at 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.