Z.ai holds a 62% market-implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard at end-September due to its GLM-5.3-flash model's recent gains in human-preference votes on math prompts, placing it behind only Anthropic and Google in mid-September snapshots. Alibaba's Qwen3.8-max and Moonshot's Kimi models sit close behind, supported by targeted chain-of-thought optimizations and large-scale math datasets, yet trail by enough margin that a late release or vote surge could alter the order before the September 30 cutoff. Frontier labs like OpenAI and Meta register low odds because their latest GPT and Llama variants have not closed the gap in this specific category. With resolution imminent, any confirmed model update or benchmark shift in the final days remains the key swing factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedZ.ai 62.1%
Alibaba 17%
Google 10%
OpenAI 5.1%
$66,592 Vol.
$66,592 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Z.ai
62%
Alibaba
17%
10%
OpenAI
5%
Moonshot
5%
Meta
5%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Anthropic
1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai 62.1%
Alibaba 17%
Google 10%
OpenAI 5.1%
$66,592 Vol.
$66,592 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Z.ai
$7,785 Vol.
62%
Alibaba
$14,096 Vol.
17%
$7,963 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$9,945 Vol.
5%
Moonshot
$3,024 Vol.
5%
Meta
$2,007 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$2,002 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,545 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,813 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$2,649 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$2,720 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$2,642 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,569 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,560 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$743 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$756 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$575 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$916 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,586 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$698 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Z.ai holds a 62% market-implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard at end-September due to its GLM-5.3-flash model's recent gains in human-preference votes on math prompts, placing it behind only Anthropic and Google in mid-September snapshots. Alibaba's Qwen3.8-max and Moonshot's Kimi models sit close behind, supported by targeted chain-of-thought optimizations and large-scale math datasets, yet trail by enough margin that a late release or vote surge could alter the order before the September 30 cutoff. Frontier labs like OpenAI and Meta register low odds because their latest GPT and Llama variants have not closed the gap in this specific category. With resolution imminent, any confirmed model update or benchmark shift in the final days remains the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$66,592End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Z.ai holds a 62% market-implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard at end-September due to its GLM-5.3-flash model's recent gains in human-preference votes on math prompts, placing it behind only Anthropic and Google in mid-September snapshots. Alibaba's Qwen3.8-max and Moonshot's Kimi models sit close behind, supported by targeted chain-of-thought optimizations and large-scale math datasets, yet trail by enough margin that a late release or vote surge could alter the order before the September 30 cutoff. Frontier labs like OpenAI and Meta register low odds because their latest GPT and Llama variants have not closed the gap in this specific category. With resolution imminent, any confirmed model update or benchmark shift in the final days remains the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$66,592End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Z.ai holds a 62% market-implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard at end-September due to its GLM-5.3-flash model's recent gains in human-preference votes on math prompts, placing it behind only Anthropic and Google in mid-September snapshots. Alibaba's Qwen3.8-max and Moonshot's Kimi models sit close behind, supported by targeted chain-of-thought optimizations and large-scale math datasets, yet trail by enough margin that a late release or vote surge could alter the order before the September 30 cutoff. Frontier labs like OpenAI and Meta register low odds because their latest GPT and Llama variants have not closed the gap in this specific category. With resolution imminent, any confirmed model update or benchmark shift in the final days remains the key swing factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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