Moonshot AI’s 86.7% implied probability for third place stems from the July 2026 release of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model featuring native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 coordinated sub-agents and strong results on agentic coding and long-horizon benchmarks. Recent leaderboard snapshots place Kimi K3 directly behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and ahead of most OpenAI entries in tool-use and multi-step reasoning metrics, reinforcing trader consensus on its positioning. Z.ai’s GLM series and funding round add competitive pressure but trail in current agent-specific evaluations, while regulatory scrutiny over distillation has not yet dented Moonshot’s demonstrated capabilities. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Labs leaderboard on September 30, the market reflects Moonshot’s recent edge in practical agent workflows amid a tightening field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 86.8%
Z.ai 5.4%
Google 3.5%
DeepSeek 3.3%
$54,209 Vol.
$54,209 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
87%
Z.ai
5%
3%
DeepSeek
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Meta
3%
Mistral
3%
Anthropic
3%
Alibaba
2%
OpenAI
2%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 86.8%
Z.ai 5.4%
Google 3.5%
DeepSeek 3.3%
$54,209 Vol.
$54,209 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$34,603 Vol.
87%
Z.ai
$2,812 Vol.
5%
$482 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$471 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$584 Vol.
3%
Meta
$409 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$610 Vol.
3%
Anthropic
$2,459 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$1,087 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$7,320 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$414 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$470 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$388 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$609 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$373 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$393 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$408 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$318 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s 86.7% implied probability for third place stems from the July 2026 release of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model featuring native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 coordinated sub-agents and strong results on agentic coding and long-horizon benchmarks. Recent leaderboard snapshots place Kimi K3 directly behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and ahead of most OpenAI entries in tool-use and multi-step reasoning metrics, reinforcing trader consensus on its positioning. Z.ai’s GLM series and funding round add competitive pressure but trail in current agent-specific evaluations, while regulatory scrutiny over distillation has not yet dented Moonshot’s demonstrated capabilities. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Labs leaderboard on September 30, the market reflects Moonshot’s recent edge in practical agent workflows amid a tightening field.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$54,209End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s 86.7% implied probability for third place stems from the July 2026 release of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model featuring native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 coordinated sub-agents and strong results on agentic coding and long-horizon benchmarks. Recent leaderboard snapshots place Kimi K3 directly behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and ahead of most OpenAI entries in tool-use and multi-step reasoning metrics, reinforcing trader consensus on its positioning. Z.ai’s GLM series and funding round add competitive pressure but trail in current agent-specific evaluations, while regulatory scrutiny over distillation has not yet dented Moonshot’s demonstrated capabilities. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Labs leaderboard on September 30, the market reflects Moonshot’s recent edge in practical agent workflows amid a tightening field.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$54,209End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI’s 86.7% implied probability for third place stems from the July 2026 release of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model featuring native Agent Swarm support for up to 300 coordinated sub-agents and strong results on agentic coding and long-horizon benchmarks. Recent leaderboard snapshots place Kimi K3 directly behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and ahead of most OpenAI entries in tool-use and multi-step reasoning metrics, reinforcing trader consensus on its positioning. Z.ai’s GLM series and funding round add competitive pressure but trail in current agent-specific evaluations, while regulatory scrutiny over distillation has not yet dented Moonshot’s demonstrated capabilities. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Labs leaderboard on September 30, the market reflects Moonshot’s recent edge in practical agent workflows amid a tightening field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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