The closely contested market reflects intense competition among leading AI labs to deliver superior math reasoning in text-based arenas by late November, with Anthropic holding the highest implied probability at 41.3% amid expectations for continued gains in chain-of-thought and multi-step problem solving. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated benchmark performance on complex math tasks against factors like model scale, training data quality, and integration of symbolic tools, while Google, OpenAI, and Z.ai trail as credible challengers with recent capability updates. Key swing elements include upcoming model releases, third-party evaluations, and any shifts in safety or alignment priorities that could affect math-focused fine-tuning. The fragmented field underscores how small differences in reasoning depth or error rates can sway outcomes in this fast-evolving domain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 41.7%
Google 19%
OpenAI 17%
Z.ai 6.9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
42%
19%
OpenAI
17%
Z.ai
7%
ByteDance
7%
Nvidia
4%
Meituan
4%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Microsoft
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Meta
1%
MiniMax
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Thinky
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Anthropic 41.7%
Google 19%
OpenAI 17%
Z.ai 6.9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$2,562 Vol.
42%
$1,240 Vol.
19%
OpenAI
$1,127 Vol.
17%
Z.ai
$173 Vol.
7%
ByteDance
$379 Vol.
7%
Nvidia
$479 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$1,346 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$133 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$149 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$126 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$129 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$133 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$133 Vol.
1%
Meta
$133 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$133 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$148 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$165 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$133 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$133 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$133 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$133 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely contested market reflects intense competition among leading AI labs to deliver superior math reasoning in text-based arenas by late November, with Anthropic holding the highest implied probability at 41.3% amid expectations for continued gains in chain-of-thought and multi-step problem solving. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated benchmark performance on complex math tasks against factors like model scale, training data quality, and integration of symbolic tools, while Google, OpenAI, and Z.ai trail as credible challengers with recent capability updates. Key swing elements include upcoming model releases, third-party evaluations, and any shifts in safety or alignment priorities that could affect math-focused fine-tuning. The fragmented field underscores how small differences in reasoning depth or error rates can sway outcomes in this fast-evolving domain.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,219End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely contested market reflects intense competition among leading AI labs to deliver superior math reasoning in text-based arenas by late November, with Anthropic holding the highest implied probability at 41.3% amid expectations for continued gains in chain-of-thought and multi-step problem solving. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated benchmark performance on complex math tasks against factors like model scale, training data quality, and integration of symbolic tools, while Google, OpenAI, and Z.ai trail as credible challengers with recent capability updates. Key swing elements include upcoming model releases, third-party evaluations, and any shifts in safety or alignment priorities that could affect math-focused fine-tuning. The fragmented field underscores how small differences in reasoning depth or error rates can sway outcomes in this fast-evolving domain.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$9,219End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested market reflects intense competition among leading AI labs to deliver superior math reasoning in text-based arenas by late November, with Anthropic holding the highest implied probability at 41.3% amid expectations for continued gains in chain-of-thought and multi-step problem solving. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated benchmark performance on complex math tasks against factors like model scale, training data quality, and integration of symbolic tools, while Google, OpenAI, and Z.ai trail as credible challengers with recent capability updates. Key swing elements include upcoming model releases, third-party evaluations, and any shifts in safety or alignment priorities that could affect math-focused fine-tuning. The fragmented field underscores how small differences in reasoning depth or error rates can sway outcomes in this fast-evolving domain.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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