Recent rumors of Claude Opus 5.2 routing on paid surfaces and developer accounts have driven strong trader consensus toward an imminent launch, with market-implied odds heavily favoring September 21 at 51.2%. Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence—Opus 5 shipped in July, followed by Fable and Mythos 5.1 updates on September 1—supports expectations for another Opus refresh within weeks, though no official announcement or model card has confirmed timing. Key swing factors include verification of the routing claims and any last-minute delays common in frontier model rollouts. The 22% probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects residual uncertainty around exact readiness and internal review processes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 21 51.5%
No release by September 30 22%
September 22 16%
September 24 10%
$21,719 Vol.
$21,719 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
September 19
<1%
September 20
1%
September 21
52%
September 22
16%
September 23
1%
September 24
10%
September 25
2%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
<1%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
22%
September 21 51.5%
No release by September 30 22%
September 22 16%
September 24 10%
$21,719 Vol.
$21,719 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
September 19
$669 Vol.
<1%
September 20
$1,149 Vol.
1%
September 21
$6,482 Vol.
52%
September 22
$1,656 Vol.
16%
September 23
$1,057 Vol.
1%
September 24
$2,071 Vol.
10%
September 25
$779 Vol.
2%
September 26
$578 Vol.
<1%
September 27
$776 Vol.
<1%
September 28
$345 Vol.
<1%
September 29
$1,173 Vol.
1%
September 30
$1,251 Vol.
1%
No release by September 30
$2,422 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rumors of Claude Opus 5.2 routing on paid surfaces and developer accounts have driven strong trader consensus toward an imminent launch, with market-implied odds heavily favoring September 21 at 51.2%. Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence—Opus 5 shipped in July, followed by Fable and Mythos 5.1 updates on September 1—supports expectations for another Opus refresh within weeks, though no official announcement or model card has confirmed timing. Key swing factors include verification of the routing claims and any last-minute delays common in frontier model rollouts. The 22% probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects residual uncertainty around exact readiness and internal review processes.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,719End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rumors of Claude Opus 5.2 routing on paid surfaces and developer accounts have driven strong trader consensus toward an imminent launch, with market-implied odds heavily favoring September 21 at 51.2%. Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence—Opus 5 shipped in July, followed by Fable and Mythos 5.1 updates on September 1—supports expectations for another Opus refresh within weeks, though no official announcement or model card has confirmed timing. Key swing factors include verification of the routing claims and any last-minute delays common in frontier model rollouts. The 22% probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects residual uncertainty around exact readiness and internal review processes.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$21,719End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent rumors of Claude Opus 5.2 routing on paid surfaces and developer accounts have driven strong trader consensus toward an imminent launch, with market-implied odds heavily favoring September 21 at 51.2%. Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence—Opus 5 shipped in July, followed by Fable and Mythos 5.1 updates on September 1—supports expectations for another Opus refresh within weeks, though no official announcement or model card has confirmed timing. Key swing factors include verification of the routing claims and any last-minute delays common in frontier model rollouts. The 22% probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects residual uncertainty around exact readiness and internal review processes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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