The closely matched odds across numerous AI labs for third place on Text Arena Math by end of October underscore intense competition in large language model mathematical reasoning, with no dominant contender pulling ahead. Google leads at 44.5% implied probability thanks to consistent benchmark gains from its latest model iterations, while Z.ai follows at 37.9% on the strength of specialized training approaches; OpenAI sits far lower at 8.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases lag in complex problem-solving metrics. Key differentiators include chain-of-thought scaling, access to high-quality math datasets, and efficient inference optimizations amid a crowded field of labs like Anthropic and Meta. Any late-September capability demonstrations or new arena evaluations could quickly reshape the consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Google 45%
Z.ai 37.5%
OpenAI 9%
Alibaba 7%
$38,648 Vol.
$38,648 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
45%
Z.ai
38%
OpenAI
9%
Alibaba
7%
Moonshot
3%
Meituan
1%
Anthropic
1%
Baidu
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 45%
Z.ai 37.5%
OpenAI 9%
Alibaba 7%
$38,648 Vol.
$38,648 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$10,583 Vol.
45%
Z.ai
$2,084 Vol.
38%
OpenAI
$3,703 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$10,472 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$881 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$1,535 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$704 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$729 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$1,179 Vol.
1%
Meta
$663 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$682 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$701 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$684 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$707 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$749 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$632 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$495 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$646 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$422 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$395 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched odds across numerous AI labs for third place on Text Arena Math by end of October underscore intense competition in large language model mathematical reasoning, with no dominant contender pulling ahead. Google leads at 44.5% implied probability thanks to consistent benchmark gains from its latest model iterations, while Z.ai follows at 37.9% on the strength of specialized training approaches; OpenAI sits far lower at 8.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases lag in complex problem-solving metrics. Key differentiators include chain-of-thought scaling, access to high-quality math datasets, and efficient inference optimizations amid a crowded field of labs like Anthropic and Meta. Any late-September capability demonstrations or new arena evaluations could quickly reshape the consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$38,648End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched odds across numerous AI labs for third place on Text Arena Math by end of October underscore intense competition in large language model mathematical reasoning, with no dominant contender pulling ahead. Google leads at 44.5% implied probability thanks to consistent benchmark gains from its latest model iterations, while Z.ai follows at 37.9% on the strength of specialized training approaches; OpenAI sits far lower at 8.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases lag in complex problem-solving metrics. Key differentiators include chain-of-thought scaling, access to high-quality math datasets, and efficient inference optimizations amid a crowded field of labs like Anthropic and Meta. Any late-September capability demonstrations or new arena evaluations could quickly reshape the consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$38,648End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched odds across numerous AI labs for third place on Text Arena Math by end of October underscore intense competition in large language model mathematical reasoning, with no dominant contender pulling ahead. Google leads at 44.5% implied probability thanks to consistent benchmark gains from its latest model iterations, while Z.ai follows at 37.9% on the strength of specialized training approaches; OpenAI sits far lower at 8.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases lag in complex problem-solving metrics. Key differentiators include chain-of-thought scaling, access to high-quality math datasets, and efficient inference optimizations amid a crowded field of labs like Anthropic and Meta. Any late-September capability demonstrations or new arena evaluations could quickly reshape the consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions