Google leads trader sentiment at 70% implied probability for third-best AI lab by end of September, driven by DeepMind's steady Gemini model iterations, extensive compute infrastructure, and seamless integration across search, Android, and enterprise tools. This positions the company ahead of peers in demonstrated capabilities and deployment scale. Meta sits at 15% amid Llama open-source momentum, while OpenAI trails at 8.5% despite GPT advancements, reflecting perceptions of slower recent differentiation. Lower odds for Anthropic, Mistral, and others highlight competitive gaps in benchmarks and adoption. Key near-term catalysts include any late-September model drops or benchmark updates that could shift the narrow window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 70%
Meta 15.5%
OpenAI 8%
Moonshot 3.7%
$66,913 Vol.
$66,913 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
70%
Meta
16%
OpenAI
8%
Moonshot
4%
Alibaba
3%
Anthropic
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 70%
Meta 15.5%
OpenAI 8%
Moonshot 3.7%
$66,913 Vol.
$66,913 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$30,474 Vol.
70%
Meta
$6,556 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$3,479 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$1,760 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$7,982 Vol.
3%
Anthropic
$1,351 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,405 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,508 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,687 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,387 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$866 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$714 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$669 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$970 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$421 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader sentiment at 70% implied probability for third-best AI lab by end of September, driven by DeepMind's steady Gemini model iterations, extensive compute infrastructure, and seamless integration across search, Android, and enterprise tools. This positions the company ahead of peers in demonstrated capabilities and deployment scale. Meta sits at 15% amid Llama open-source momentum, while OpenAI trails at 8.5% despite GPT advancements, reflecting perceptions of slower recent differentiation. Lower odds for Anthropic, Mistral, and others highlight competitive gaps in benchmarks and adoption. Key near-term catalysts include any late-September model drops or benchmark updates that could shift the narrow window before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$66,913End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader sentiment at 70% implied probability for third-best AI lab by end of September, driven by DeepMind's steady Gemini model iterations, extensive compute infrastructure, and seamless integration across search, Android, and enterprise tools. This positions the company ahead of peers in demonstrated capabilities and deployment scale. Meta sits at 15% amid Llama open-source momentum, while OpenAI trails at 8.5% despite GPT advancements, reflecting perceptions of slower recent differentiation. Lower odds for Anthropic, Mistral, and others highlight competitive gaps in benchmarks and adoption. Key near-term catalysts include any late-September model drops or benchmark updates that could shift the narrow window before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$66,913End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google leads trader sentiment at 70% implied probability for third-best AI lab by end of September, driven by DeepMind's steady Gemini model iterations, extensive compute infrastructure, and seamless integration across search, Android, and enterprise tools. This positions the company ahead of peers in demonstrated capabilities and deployment scale. Meta sits at 15% amid Llama open-source momentum, while OpenAI trails at 8.5% despite GPT advancements, reflecting perceptions of slower recent differentiation. Lower odds for Anthropic, Mistral, and others highlight competitive gaps in benchmarks and adoption. Key near-term catalysts include any late-September model drops or benchmark updates that could shift the narrow window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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