A strengthening very strong El Niño, with recent Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C and NOAA confirming greater than 90% odds of a historic peak this fall, forms the main driver behind the closely matched market-implied odds across 1.30–1.49°C bins for September 2026. Record global warmth in August—the hottest on record per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5—combined with the long-term warming trend has elevated baseline temperatures, yet the precise September anomaly hinges on remaining intra-month variability, model spread in El Niño intensity, and lag effects that typically peak later. Official agencies continue releasing updated SST and temperature data through mid-September, sustaining uncertainty reflected in the balanced probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.35–1.39ºC 45%
<1.30ºC 39%
1.30–1.34ºC 38%
1.40–1.44ºC 35%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
39%
1.30–1.34ºC
38%
1.35–1.39ºC
45%
1.40–1.44ºC
35%
1.45–1.49ºC
35%
>1.49ºC
34%
1.35–1.39ºC 45%
<1.30ºC 39%
1.30–1.34ºC 38%
1.40–1.44ºC 35%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
45%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
35%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
35%
>1.49ºC
$45 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening very strong El Niño, with recent Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C and NOAA confirming greater than 90% odds of a historic peak this fall, forms the main driver behind the closely matched market-implied odds across 1.30–1.49°C bins for September 2026. Record global warmth in August—the hottest on record per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5—combined with the long-term warming trend has elevated baseline temperatures, yet the precise September anomaly hinges on remaining intra-month variability, model spread in El Niño intensity, and lag effects that typically peak later. Official agencies continue releasing updated SST and temperature data through mid-September, sustaining uncertainty reflected in the balanced probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$45End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening very strong El Niño, with recent Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C and NOAA confirming greater than 90% odds of a historic peak this fall, forms the main driver behind the closely matched market-implied odds across 1.30–1.49°C bins for September 2026. Record global warmth in August—the hottest on record per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5—combined with the long-term warming trend has elevated baseline temperatures, yet the precise September anomaly hinges on remaining intra-month variability, model spread in El Niño intensity, and lag effects that typically peak later. Official agencies continue releasing updated SST and temperature data through mid-September, sustaining uncertainty reflected in the balanced probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$45End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening very strong El Niño, with recent Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C and NOAA confirming greater than 90% odds of a historic peak this fall, forms the main driver behind the closely matched market-implied odds across 1.30–1.49°C bins for September 2026. Record global warmth in August—the hottest on record per NOAA and Copernicus ERA5—combined with the long-term warming trend has elevated baseline temperatures, yet the precise September anomaly hinges on remaining intra-month variability, model spread in El Niño intensity, and lag effects that typically peak later. Official agencies continue releasing updated SST and temperature data through mid-September, sustaining uncertainty reflected in the balanced probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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