**Trader consensus for exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, rests on USGS-confirmed seismic data showing a single qualifying event.** A magnitude 6.5 quake struck on September 17 at approximately 98 km depth, 169 km west of Nikolski in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, consistent with subduction-zone activity along the Pacific plate boundary. No additional events reached the 6.5 threshold through late September 20, although a 6.4 quake occurred that day in Papua New Guinea. Global rates average roughly 15–20 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes annually, or about 0.3–0.4 per week, with occasional clustering; the observed count aligns with this baseline and recent model runs showing no unusual swarm activity. The 92.5% implied probability would shift only if a late-period event is confirmed or an existing magnitude is revised upward by official review.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 14 - September 20?
1 93%
2 3.1%
4 1.1%
3 1.0%
$13,826 Vol.
$13,826 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
0
1%
1
93%
2
3%
3
1%
4
1%
5
1%
more than 5
1%
1 93%
2 3.1%
4 1.1%
3 1.0%
$13,826 Vol.
$13,826 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
0
$5,851 Vol.
1%
1
$4,026 Vol.
93%
2
$2,667 Vol.
3%
3
$306 Vol.
1%
4
$214 Vol.
1%
5
$440 Vol.
1%
more than 5
$322 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader consensus for exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, rests on USGS-confirmed seismic data showing a single qualifying event.** A magnitude 6.5 quake struck on September 17 at approximately 98 km depth, 169 km west of Nikolski in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, consistent with subduction-zone activity along the Pacific plate boundary. No additional events reached the 6.5 threshold through late September 20, although a 6.4 quake occurred that day in Papua New Guinea. Global rates average roughly 15–20 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes annually, or about 0.3–0.4 per week, with occasional clustering; the observed count aligns with this baseline and recent model runs showing no unusual swarm activity. The 92.5% implied probability would shift only if a late-period event is confirmed or an existing magnitude is revised upward by official review.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ET
Volume
$13,826End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Trader consensus for exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, rests on USGS-confirmed seismic data showing a single qualifying event.** A magnitude 6.5 quake struck on September 17 at approximately 98 km depth, 169 km west of Nikolski in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, consistent with subduction-zone activity along the Pacific plate boundary. No additional events reached the 6.5 threshold through late September 20, although a 6.4 quake occurred that day in Papua New Guinea. Global rates average roughly 15–20 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes annually, or about 0.3–0.4 per week, with occasional clustering; the observed count aligns with this baseline and recent model runs showing no unusual swarm activity. The 92.5% implied probability would shift only if a late-period event is confirmed or an existing magnitude is revised upward by official review.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$13,826End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 4:53 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus for exactly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, 2026, rests on USGS-confirmed seismic data showing a single qualifying event.** A magnitude 6.5 quake struck on September 17 at approximately 98 km depth, 169 km west of Nikolski in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, consistent with subduction-zone activity along the Pacific plate boundary. No additional events reached the 6.5 threshold through late September 20, although a 6.4 quake occurred that day in Papua New Guinea. Global rates average roughly 15–20 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes annually, or about 0.3–0.4 per week, with occasional clustering; the observed count aligns with this baseline and recent model runs showing no unusual swarm activity. The 92.5% implied probability would shift only if a late-period event is confirmed or an existing magnitude is revised upward by official review.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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