Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already near +2.8°C and forecasts pointing to a historically intense peak later in 2026, combined with elevated baseline ocean and land temperatures from long-term anthropogenic warming, are the main factors keeping September 2026 anomaly probabilities closely balanced across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges. August 2026 set a new global record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5 data, and early September observations show daily anomalies near or above 1.6°C, though model ensembles indicate substantial spread from atmospheric variability and exact measurement timing. Official monthly releases from agencies like Copernicus and Berkeley Earth in coming weeks will clarify the final bin, underscoring the inherent uncertainty in short-term climate outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already near +2.8°C and forecasts pointing to a historically intense peak later in 2026, combined with elevated baseline ocean and land temperatures from long-term anthropogenic warming, are the main factors keeping September 2026 anomaly probabilities closely balanced across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges. August 2026 set a new global record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5 data, and early September observations show daily anomalies near or above 1.6°C, though model ensembles indicate substantial spread from atmospheric variability and exact measurement timing. Official monthly releases from agencies like Copernicus and Berkeley Earth in coming weeks will clarify the final bin, underscoring the inherent uncertainty in short-term climate outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already near +2.8°C and forecasts pointing to a historically intense peak later in 2026, combined with elevated baseline ocean and land temperatures from long-term anthropogenic warming, are the main factors keeping September 2026 anomaly probabilities closely balanced across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges. August 2026 set a new global record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5 data, and early September observations show daily anomalies near or above 1.6°C, though model ensembles indicate substantial spread from atmospheric variability and exact measurement timing. Official monthly releases from agencies like Copernicus and Berkeley Earth in coming weeks will clarify the final bin, underscoring the inherent uncertainty in short-term climate outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already near +2.8°C and forecasts pointing to a historically intense peak later in 2026, combined with elevated baseline ocean and land temperatures from long-term anthropogenic warming, are the main factors keeping September 2026 anomaly probabilities closely balanced across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges. August 2026 set a new global record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5 data, and early September observations show daily anomalies near or above 1.6°C, though model ensembles indicate substantial spread from atmospheric variability and exact measurement timing. Official monthly releases from agencies like Copernicus and Berkeley Earth in coming weeks will clarify the final bin, underscoring the inherent uncertainty in short-term climate outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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