**Low global seismic activity in the opening days of the period has positioned zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake as the leading market outcomes.** As of September 9, USGS and other monitoring networks report no events reaching 6.5 since the window opened on September 7, with the strongest recent quakes limited to 5.2–5.3 in regions such as Vanuatu and the Aleutians. September has recorded only two magnitude 6+ events early in the month (6.3 in Alaska’s Fox Islands on September 3 and 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands on September 2), consistent with typical background rates of roughly 15–20 magnitude 7+ events annually worldwide and a lower frequency for 6.5–6.9 quakes. Trader consensus reflects this quiet period and the absence of active subduction-zone clusters or aftershock sequences that could elevate short-term probabilities. Remaining resolution hinges on any late-week developments tracked by the USGS National Earthquake Information Center.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
0 56%
1 31%
2 12%
3 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
0
56%
1
31%
2
12%
3
4%
4
3%
5
<1%
more than 5
<1%
0 56%
1 31%
2 12%
3 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
0
$736 Vol.
56%
1
$33 Vol.
31%
2
$25 Vol.
12%
3
$44 Vol.
4%
4
$8 Vol.
3%
5
$307 Vol.
<1%
more than 5
$192 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Low global seismic activity in the opening days of the period has positioned zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake as the leading market outcomes.** As of September 9, USGS and other monitoring networks report no events reaching 6.5 since the window opened on September 7, with the strongest recent quakes limited to 5.2–5.3 in regions such as Vanuatu and the Aleutians. September has recorded only two magnitude 6+ events early in the month (6.3 in Alaska’s Fox Islands on September 3 and 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands on September 2), consistent with typical background rates of roughly 15–20 magnitude 7+ events annually worldwide and a lower frequency for 6.5–6.9 quakes.
Trader consensus reflects this quiet period and the absence of active subduction-zone clusters or aftershock sequences that could elevate short-term probabilities. Remaining resolution hinges on any late-week developments tracked by the USGS National Earthquake Information Center.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$1,345End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Low global seismic activity in the opening days of the period has positioned zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake as the leading market outcomes.** As of September 9, USGS and other monitoring networks report no events reaching 6.5 since the window opened on September 7, with the strongest recent quakes limited to 5.2–5.3 in regions such as Vanuatu and the Aleutians. September has recorded only two magnitude 6+ events early in the month (6.3 in Alaska’s Fox Islands on September 3 and 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands on September 2), consistent with typical background rates of roughly 15–20 magnitude 7+ events annually worldwide and a lower frequency for 6.5–6.9 quakes.
Trader consensus reflects this quiet period and the absence of active subduction-zone clusters or aftershock sequences that could elevate short-term probabilities. Remaining resolution hinges on any late-week developments tracked by the USGS National Earthquake Information Center.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$1,345End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Low global seismic activity in the opening days of the period has positioned zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake as the leading market outcomes.** As of September 9, USGS and other monitoring networks report no events reaching 6.5 since the window opened on September 7, with the strongest recent quakes limited to 5.2–5.3 in regions such as Vanuatu and the Aleutians. September has recorded only two magnitude 6+ events early in the month (6.3 in Alaska’s Fox Islands on September 3 and 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands on September 2), consistent with typical background rates of roughly 15–20 magnitude 7+ events annually worldwide and a lower frequency for 6.5–6.9 quakes. Trader consensus reflects this quiet period and the absence of active subduction-zone clusters or aftershock sequences that could elevate short-term probabilities. Remaining resolution hinges on any late-week developments tracked by the USGS National Earthquake Information Center.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions