Current equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have reached exceptionally high levels, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C as of early September 2026 and official NOAA indices confirming rapid strengthening. Multiple agency forecasts, including from the Climate Prediction Center, assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event peaking in October–December, with 69% odds of exceeding all historical records since 1950 on the relative ENSO index. Ensemble models from GFDL SPEAR and others show nearly all members projecting peak strength competitive with or surpassing prior super El Niño events. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.3% market-implied odds aligns with this observational and modeling evidence. Realistic challenges include potential late-season weakening not fully captured in current runs or shifts in exact classification thresholds used for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
91% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
91% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Current equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have reached exceptionally high levels, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C as of early September 2026 and official NOAA indices confirming rapid strengthening. Multiple agency forecasts, including from the Climate Prediction Center, assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event peaking in October–December, with 69% odds of exceeding all historical records since 1950 on the relative ENSO index. Ensemble models from GFDL SPEAR and others show nearly all members projecting peak strength competitive with or surpassing prior super El Niño events. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.3% market-implied odds aligns with this observational and modeling evidence. Realistic challenges include potential late-season weakening not fully captured in current runs or shifts in exact classification thresholds used for resolution.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$8,256End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Current equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have reached exceptionally high levels, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C as of early September 2026 and official NOAA indices confirming rapid strengthening. Multiple agency forecasts, including from the Climate Prediction Center, assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event peaking in October–December, with 69% odds of exceeding all historical records since 1950 on the relative ENSO index. Ensemble models from GFDL SPEAR and others show nearly all members projecting peak strength competitive with or surpassing prior super El Niño events. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.3% market-implied odds aligns with this observational and modeling evidence. Realistic challenges include potential late-season weakening not fully captured in current runs or shifts in exact classification thresholds used for resolution.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$8,256End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have reached exceptionally high levels, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.7°C as of early September 2026 and official NOAA indices confirming rapid strengthening. Multiple agency forecasts, including from the Climate Prediction Center, assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event peaking in October–December, with 69% odds of exceeding all historical records since 1950 on the relative ENSO index. Ensemble models from GFDL SPEAR and others show nearly all members projecting peak strength competitive with or surpassing prior super El Niño events. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.3% market-implied odds aligns with this observational and modeling evidence. Realistic challenges include potential late-season weakening not fully captured in current runs or shifts in exact classification thresholds used for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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