Recent NSIDC satellite observations place the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum near 4.6 million square kilometers, driving the overwhelming market-implied odds for the 4.4-4.6 million sq km bin. This positioning aligns with ongoing long-term decline from Arctic amplification and greenhouse forcing, tempered this season by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions and a persistent low-pressure system that limited melt rates compared to early-summer trajectories. August extent averaged seventh lowest on record, with open water concentrated in peripheral seas while central ice held relatively steady. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these measurements over model uncertainty. A late-season warm surge or revised concentration data could still nudge the final value outside this narrow range before refreeze solidifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 97.8%
4.2-4.4m sq km 1.3%
<4m sq km <1%
4.0-4.2m sq km <1%
$85,901 Vol.
$85,901 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
<1%
4.0-4.2m sq km
<1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
1%
4.4-4.6m sq km
98%
4.6-4.8m sq km
<1%
4.8-5m sq km
<1%
5m+ sq km
<1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 97.8%
4.2-4.4m sq km 1.3%
<4m sq km <1%
4.0-4.2m sq km <1%
$85,901 Vol.
$85,901 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$36,202 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$8,850 Vol.
<1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$4,257 Vol.
1%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$5,462 Vol.
98%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$10,828 Vol.
<1%
4.8-5m sq km
$4,816 Vol.
<1%
5m+ sq km
$15,486 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC satellite observations place the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum near 4.6 million square kilometers, driving the overwhelming market-implied odds for the 4.4-4.6 million sq km bin. This positioning aligns with ongoing long-term decline from Arctic amplification and greenhouse forcing, tempered this season by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions and a persistent low-pressure system that limited melt rates compared to early-summer trajectories. August extent averaged seventh lowest on record, with open water concentrated in peripheral seas while central ice held relatively steady. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these measurements over model uncertainty. A late-season warm surge or revised concentration data could still nudge the final value outside this narrow range before refreeze solidifies.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$85,901End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent NSIDC satellite observations place the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum near 4.6 million square kilometers, driving the overwhelming market-implied odds for the 4.4-4.6 million sq km bin. This positioning aligns with ongoing long-term decline from Arctic amplification and greenhouse forcing, tempered this season by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions and a persistent low-pressure system that limited melt rates compared to early-summer trajectories. August extent averaged seventh lowest on record, with open water concentrated in peripheral seas while central ice held relatively steady. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these measurements over model uncertainty. A late-season warm surge or revised concentration data could still nudge the final value outside this narrow range before refreeze solidifies.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$85,901End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent NSIDC satellite observations place the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum near 4.6 million square kilometers, driving the overwhelming market-implied odds for the 4.4-4.6 million sq km bin. This positioning aligns with ongoing long-term decline from Arctic amplification and greenhouse forcing, tempered this season by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions and a persistent low-pressure system that limited melt rates compared to early-summer trajectories. August extent averaged seventh lowest on record, with open water concentrated in peripheral seas while central ice held relatively steady. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these measurements over model uncertainty. A late-season warm surge or revised concentration data could still nudge the final value outside this narrow range before refreeze solidifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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