Trader consensus on the Polymarket market for worldwide M5.5+ earthquakes September 7–13 centers on ≤6 events at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting typical background seismicity rates documented by USGS catalogs. Historical data indicate roughly 15–25 magnitude 5–5.9 quakes annually per week on average, with M5.5+ subsets often falling in the single-digit range absent aftershock sequences or swarm activity along major plate boundaries such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. Recent monitoring through early September shows scattered moderate events, including isolated M5.5–6.2 shocks near Vanuatu, the South Sandwich Islands, and the Aleutians, without sustained clustering that would elevate totals. No large-magnitude triggers or unusual strain accumulation reported by global networks have shifted expectations, keeping higher counts like 9+ at low single-digit probabilities. USGS real-time catalogs and model updates through the resolution window will determine final tallies based on verified epicenters and magnitudes.