Record-high global temperatures for August 2026, confirmed at 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline by Copernicus ERA5 data, underpin the overwhelming market-implied odds above 1.29°C. This outcome reflects the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and a strengthening El Niño event that drove record sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions, with extra-polar oceans reaching 21.07°C. Official measurements from agencies like Copernicus and supporting analyses from Berkeley Earth and UAH datasets show August tying or exceeding prior monthly peaks, consistent with the sustained upward trend in global anomalies. While the consensus appears robust given verified observations, revisions in final blended datasets or adjustments to the pre-industrial reference period could theoretically shift precise anomaly values, though such changes remain unlikely to drop below the dominant threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,099 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,783 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Record-high global temperatures for August 2026, confirmed at 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline by Copernicus ERA5 data, underpin the overwhelming market-implied odds above 1.29°C. This outcome reflects the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and a strengthening El Niño event that drove record sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions, with extra-polar oceans reaching 21.07°C. Official measurements from agencies like Copernicus and supporting analyses from Berkeley Earth and UAH datasets show August tying or exceeding prior monthly peaks, consistent with the sustained upward trend in global anomalies. While the consensus appears robust given verified observations, revisions in final blended datasets or adjustments to the pre-industrial reference period could theoretically shift precise anomaly values, though such changes remain unlikely to drop below the dominant threshold.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,173End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Record-high global temperatures for August 2026, confirmed at 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline by Copernicus ERA5 data, underpin the overwhelming market-implied odds above 1.29°C. This outcome reflects the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and a strengthening El Niño event that drove record sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions, with extra-polar oceans reaching 21.07°C. Official measurements from agencies like Copernicus and supporting analyses from Berkeley Earth and UAH datasets show August tying or exceeding prior monthly peaks, consistent with the sustained upward trend in global anomalies. While the consensus appears robust given verified observations, revisions in final blended datasets or adjustments to the pre-industrial reference period could theoretically shift precise anomaly values, though such changes remain unlikely to drop below the dominant threshold.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,173End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Record-high global temperatures for August 2026, confirmed at 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline by Copernicus ERA5 data, underpin the overwhelming market-implied odds above 1.29°C. This outcome reflects the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and a strengthening El Niño event that drove record sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions, with extra-polar oceans reaching 21.07°C. Official measurements from agencies like Copernicus and supporting analyses from Berkeley Earth and UAH datasets show August tying or exceeding prior monthly peaks, consistent with the sustained upward trend in global anomalies. While the consensus appears robust given verified observations, revisions in final blended datasets or adjustments to the pre-industrial reference period could theoretically shift precise anomaly values, though such changes remain unlikely to drop below the dominant threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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