**Record August 2026 global temperatures, driven by a strengthening El Niño and sustained anthropogenic warming, have aligned trader consensus tightly around the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin.** Official analyses, including ERA5 data processed by climatologists, show the month as the warmest August on record, with surface temperatures reaching approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content (peaking at 21.1°C sea-surface temperature on August 22). This outcome reflects the combined influence of elevated baseline conditions from prior years and tropical Pacific sea-surface anomalies exceeding +2.5°C in key Niño regions. Model consensus and preliminary Copernicus and Berkeley Earth updates support this narrow range, though final monthly syntheses from NOAA or NASA could shift results if revisions exceed typical uncertainty bounds of ±0.05–0.1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.8%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 Vol.
$20,752 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.8%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 Vol.
$20,752 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 Vol.
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 Vol.
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,263 Vol.
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Record August 2026 global temperatures, driven by a strengthening El Niño and sustained anthropogenic warming, have aligned trader consensus tightly around the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin.** Official analyses, including ERA5 data processed by climatologists, show the month as the warmest August on record, with surface temperatures reaching approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content (peaking at 21.1°C sea-surface temperature on August 22). This outcome reflects the combined influence of elevated baseline conditions from prior years and tropical Pacific sea-surface anomalies exceeding +2.5°C in key Niño regions. Model consensus and preliminary Copernicus and Berkeley Earth updates support this narrow range, though final monthly syntheses from NOAA or NASA could shift results if revisions exceed typical uncertainty bounds of ±0.05–0.1°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,752End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Record August 2026 global temperatures, driven by a strengthening El Niño and sustained anthropogenic warming, have aligned trader consensus tightly around the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin.** Official analyses, including ERA5 data processed by climatologists, show the month as the warmest August on record, with surface temperatures reaching approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content (peaking at 21.1°C sea-surface temperature on August 22). This outcome reflects the combined influence of elevated baseline conditions from prior years and tropical Pacific sea-surface anomalies exceeding +2.5°C in key Niño regions. Model consensus and preliminary Copernicus and Berkeley Earth updates support this narrow range, though final monthly syntheses from NOAA or NASA could shift results if revisions exceed typical uncertainty bounds of ±0.05–0.1°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,752End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Record August 2026 global temperatures, driven by a strengthening El Niño and sustained anthropogenic warming, have aligned trader consensus tightly around the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin.** Official analyses, including ERA5 data processed by climatologists, show the month as the warmest August on record, with surface temperatures reaching approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content (peaking at 21.1°C sea-surface temperature on August 22). This outcome reflects the combined influence of elevated baseline conditions from prior years and tropical Pacific sea-surface anomalies exceeding +2.5°C in key Niño regions. Model consensus and preliminary Copernicus and Berkeley Earth updates support this narrow range, though final monthly syntheses from NOAA or NASA could shift results if revisions exceed typical uncertainty bounds of ±0.05–0.1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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