**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum near 26°C in Karachi on September 11, supporting its leading 52% market-implied probability.** Coastal location on the Arabian Sea promotes moderation through sea breezes and high humidity, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s°C during early September. Recent Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance and ensemble runs show stable hot, humid conditions with no major synoptic shifts expected overnight, aligning with historical averages around 26–27°C. Traders appear to weigh this baseline against tail risks of brief cooling from variable winds or clearer skies, reflected in the 37% on 21°C or below, while higher thresholds remain lower-probability outliers given current steering patterns and lack of significant model divergence. Updated short-range guidance ahead of resolution will likely refine these implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Karachi on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Karachi on September 11?
21°C or below 76%
31°C or higher 76%
26°C 50%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
21°C or below
76%
22°C
17%
23°C
39%
24°C
22%
25°C
22%
26°C
39%
27°C
21%
28°C
39%
29°C
16%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
76%
21°C or below 76%
31°C or higher 76%
26°C 50%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
76%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$126 Vol.
39%
27°C
$0 Vol.
21%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
16%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum near 26°C in Karachi on September 11, supporting its leading 52% market-implied probability.**
Coastal location on the Arabian Sea promotes moderation through sea breezes and high humidity, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s°C during early September. Recent Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance and ensemble runs show stable hot, humid conditions with no major synoptic shifts expected overnight, aligning with historical averages around 26–27°C. Traders appear to weigh this baseline against tail risks of brief cooling from variable winds or clearer skies, reflected in the 37% on 21°C or below, while higher thresholds remain lower-probability outliers given current steering patterns and lack of significant model divergence. Updated short-range guidance ahead of resolution will likely refine these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$126End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum near 26°C in Karachi on September 11, supporting its leading 52% market-implied probability.**
Coastal location on the Arabian Sea promotes moderation through sea breezes and high humidity, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s°C during early September. Recent Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance and ensemble runs show stable hot, humid conditions with no major synoptic shifts expected overnight, aligning with historical averages around 26–27°C. Traders appear to weigh this baseline against tail risks of brief cooling from variable winds or clearer skies, reflected in the 37% on 21°C or below, while higher thresholds remain lower-probability outliers given current steering patterns and lack of significant model divergence. Updated short-range guidance ahead of resolution will likely refine these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Jinnah International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$126End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=opkcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum near 26°C in Karachi on September 11, supporting its leading 52% market-implied probability.** Coastal location on the Arabian Sea promotes moderation through sea breezes and high humidity, keeping overnight lows in the mid-20s°C during early September. Recent Pakistan Meteorological Department guidance and ensemble runs show stable hot, humid conditions with no major synoptic shifts expected overnight, aligning with historical averages around 26–27°C. Traders appear to weigh this baseline against tail risks of brief cooling from variable winds or clearer skies, reflected in the 37% on 21°C or below, while higher thresholds remain lower-probability outliers given current steering patterns and lack of significant model divergence. Updated short-range guidance ahead of resolution will likely refine these implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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