Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies and light northwest winds under stable high pressure for Toronto on September 11, positioning a daytime high near 22–23°C as the most likely outcome and supporting the market’s 51% implied probability on 23°C. These conditions favor modest afternoon warming without strong advection or cloud cover to suppress temperatures, consistent with early-September climatology where highs average around 23°C. Model consensus shows limited spread, though minor revisions in wind direction or timing could shift the peak by 1°C. Traders appear to weigh this evidence heavily while discounting lower-probability warmer or cooler scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 11?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 11?
23°C 49%
24°C 31%
22°C 14%
25°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
14%
23°C
49%
24°C
31%
25°C
4%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 49%
24°C 31%
22°C 14%
25°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
18°C or below
$314 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$14 Vol.
1%
21°C
$289 Vol.
3%
22°C
$1,082 Vol.
14%
23°C
$1,927 Vol.
49%
24°C
$742 Vol.
31%
25°C
$308 Vol.
4%
26°C
$304 Vol.
2%
27°C
$247 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$402 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies and light northwest winds under stable high pressure for Toronto on September 11, positioning a daytime high near 22–23°C as the most likely outcome and supporting the market’s 51% implied probability on 23°C. These conditions favor modest afternoon warming without strong advection or cloud cover to suppress temperatures, consistent with early-September climatology where highs average around 23°C. Model consensus shows limited spread, though minor revisions in wind direction or timing could shift the peak by 1°C. Traders appear to weigh this evidence heavily while discounting lower-probability warmer or cooler scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$5,860End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies and light northwest winds under stable high pressure for Toronto on September 11, positioning a daytime high near 22–23°C as the most likely outcome and supporting the market’s 51% implied probability on 23°C. These conditions favor modest afternoon warming without strong advection or cloud cover to suppress temperatures, consistent with early-September climatology where highs average around 23°C. Model consensus shows limited spread, though minor revisions in wind direction or timing could shift the peak by 1°C. Traders appear to weigh this evidence heavily while discounting lower-probability warmer or cooler scenarios.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,860End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate clear skies and light northwest winds under stable high pressure for Toronto on September 11, positioning a daytime high near 22–23°C as the most likely outcome and supporting the market’s 51% implied probability on 23°C. These conditions favor modest afternoon warming without strong advection or cloud cover to suppress temperatures, consistent with early-September climatology where highs average around 23°C. Model consensus shows limited spread, though minor revisions in wind direction or timing could shift the peak by 1°C. Traders appear to weigh this evidence heavily while discounting lower-probability warmer or cooler scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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