National Weather Service observations recorded a maximum temperature of 105°F in downtown Los Angeles on September 9, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 84°F by 21 degrees and aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for 96°F or higher. This extreme reading reflects a strong heat wave driven by persistent high-pressure ridging, clear skies, and downslope warming, with the downtown station's official data serving as the resolution benchmark. Traders' near-certain consensus stems from verified post-event climatological reports confirming the threshold was surpassed well before market close. Only an unprecedented revision to the official dataset or a shift to an alternate station reading could alter the outcome, though historical precedents for such changes remain rare.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on September 9?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 9?
96°F or higher 100.0%
77°F or below <1%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
$56,115 Vol.
$56,115 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
100%
96°F or higher 100.0%
77°F or below <1%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
$56,115 Vol.
$56,115 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
77°F or below
$602 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$602 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$869 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,614 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$2,107 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$3,630 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$6,233 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$14,923 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$9,254 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$6,840 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$9,451 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations recorded a maximum temperature of 105°F in downtown Los Angeles on September 9, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 84°F by 21 degrees and aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for 96°F or higher. This extreme reading reflects a strong heat wave driven by persistent high-pressure ridging, clear skies, and downslope warming, with the downtown station's official data serving as the resolution benchmark. Traders' near-certain consensus stems from verified post-event climatological reports confirming the threshold was surpassed well before market close. Only an unprecedented revision to the official dataset or a shift to an alternate station reading could alter the outcome, though historical precedents for such changes remain rare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$56,115End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service observations recorded a maximum temperature of 105°F in downtown Los Angeles on September 9, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 84°F by 21 degrees and aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for 96°F or higher. This extreme reading reflects a strong heat wave driven by persistent high-pressure ridging, clear skies, and downslope warming, with the downtown station's official data serving as the resolution benchmark. Traders' near-certain consensus stems from verified post-event climatological reports confirming the threshold was surpassed well before market close. Only an unprecedented revision to the official dataset or a shift to an alternate station reading could alter the outcome, though historical precedents for such changes remain rare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$56,115End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service observations recorded a maximum temperature of 105°F in downtown Los Angeles on September 9, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 84°F by 21 degrees and aligning with the market's 100% implied probability for 96°F or higher. This extreme reading reflects a strong heat wave driven by persistent high-pressure ridging, clear skies, and downslope warming, with the downtown station's official data serving as the resolution benchmark. Traders' near-certain consensus stems from verified post-event climatological reports confirming the threshold was surpassed well before market close. Only an unprecedented revision to the official dataset or a shift to an alternate station reading could alter the outcome, though historical precedents for such changes remain rare.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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