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icon for Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Marc-Antoine Bernier 73%

Chloé Fauchon 23%

Marcos Archambault 4.5%

Richard Bélanger <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Marc-Antoine Bernier 73%

Chloé Fauchon 23%

Marcos Archambault 4.5%

Richard Bélanger <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Marc-Antoine Bernier

Marc-Antoine Bernier

$3,111 Vol.

73%

icon for Chloé Fauchon

Chloé Fauchon

$2,060 Vol.

23%

icon for Marcos Archambault

Marcos Archambault

$331 Vol.

5%

icon for Richard Bélanger

Richard Bélanger

$805 Vol.

1%

icon for Anne-Sophie Roy

Anne-Sophie Roy

$230 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**Marc-Antoine Bernier of the Coalition Avenir Québec holds a strong lead in the Louis-Hébert riding for the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, consistent with the riding’s recent electoral history.** The seat, previously held by CAQ MNA Geneviève Guilbault who is not seeking re-election, delivered 47% support for the party in 2022 under redistributed boundaries. Bernier, a veteran Quebec City journalist and TVA newsroom director, benefits from established local name recognition and the party’s incumbency advantage in the Capitale-Nationale region. Chloé Fauchon of the Parti Québécois trails as the main challenger; her candidacy was announced earlier in the year amid the PQ’s broader provincial push. Marcos Archambault of the Conservative Party and minor candidates from the Liberals and Québec solidaire register far lower probabilities. Provincial polling shows a competitive overall race with the PQ and CAQ close in vote share, yet trader consensus in this specific district reflects the CAQ’s structural edge and limited recent shifts in local sentiment.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$6,538
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**Marc-Antoine Bernier of the Coalition Avenir Québec holds a strong lead in the Louis-Hébert riding for the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, consistent with the riding’s recent electoral history.** The seat, previously held by CAQ MNA Geneviève Guilbault who is not seeking re-election, delivered 47% support for the party in 2022 under redistributed boundaries. Bernier, a veteran Quebec City journalist and TVA newsroom director, benefits from established local name recognition and the party’s incumbency advantage in the Capitale-Nationale region. Chloé Fauchon of the Parti Québécois trails as the main challenger; her candidacy was announced earlier in the year amid the PQ’s broader provincial push. Marcos Archambault of the Conservative Party and minor candidates from the Liberals and Québec solidaire register far lower probabilities. Provincial polling shows a competitive overall race with the PQ and CAQ close in vote share, yet trader consensus in this specific district reflects the CAQ’s structural edge and limited recent shifts in local sentiment.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$6,538
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marc-Antoine Bernier" at 73%, followed by "Chloé Fauchon" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Marc-Antoine Bernier" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Chloé Fauchon" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.