**Trader sentiment for zero large (VEI ≥4) eruptions in 2026 reflects the absence of confirmed events meeting the Volcanic Explosivity Index threshold through mid-September, despite ongoing global activity.** Most monitored volcanoes, including Semeru and Manam with their long-running lower-intensity phases, have produced primarily Strombolian or effusive output, while the early September Anak Krakatau plume reached roughly 15 km but has not yet been classified at VEI 4 based on ejecta volume or sustained height. Historical patterns show VEI ≥4 events average one to two per year with high interannual variability driven by magma supply and tectonic triggers. Continued Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring, including plume height and deposit assessments, will determine whether any late-2026 escalation shifts the current market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 29%
1 20%
2 3.0%
3 1.8%
$1,163,870 Vol.
$1,163,870 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
51%
1
20%
2
3%
3
7%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 29%
1 20%
2 3.0%
3 1.8%
$1,163,870 Vol.
$1,163,870 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,853 Vol.
51%
1
$274,585 Vol.
20%
2
$45,843 Vol.
3%
3
$32,088 Vol.
7%
4
$35,618 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,883 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for zero large (VEI ≥4) eruptions in 2026 reflects the absence of confirmed events meeting the Volcanic Explosivity Index threshold through mid-September, despite ongoing global activity.** Most monitored volcanoes, including Semeru and Manam with their long-running lower-intensity phases, have produced primarily Strombolian or effusive output, while the early September Anak Krakatau plume reached roughly 15 km but has not yet been classified at VEI 4 based on ejecta volume or sustained height. Historical patterns show VEI ≥4 events average one to two per year with high interannual variability driven by magma supply and tectonic triggers. Continued Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring, including plume height and deposit assessments, will determine whether any late-2026 escalation shifts the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,163,870End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for zero large (VEI ≥4) eruptions in 2026 reflects the absence of confirmed events meeting the Volcanic Explosivity Index threshold through mid-September, despite ongoing global activity.** Most monitored volcanoes, including Semeru and Manam with their long-running lower-intensity phases, have produced primarily Strombolian or effusive output, while the early September Anak Krakatau plume reached roughly 15 km but has not yet been classified at VEI 4 based on ejecta volume or sustained height. Historical patterns show VEI ≥4 events average one to two per year with high interannual variability driven by magma supply and tectonic triggers. Continued Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring, including plume height and deposit assessments, will determine whether any late-2026 escalation shifts the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,163,870End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment for zero large (VEI ≥4) eruptions in 2026 reflects the absence of confirmed events meeting the Volcanic Explosivity Index threshold through mid-September, despite ongoing global activity.** Most monitored volcanoes, including Semeru and Manam with their long-running lower-intensity phases, have produced primarily Strombolian or effusive output, while the early September Anak Krakatau plume reached roughly 15 km but has not yet been classified at VEI 4 based on ejecta volume or sustained height. Historical patterns show VEI ≥4 events average one to two per year with high interannual variability driven by magma supply and tectonic triggers. Continued Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS monitoring, including plume height and deposit assessments, will determine whether any late-2026 escalation shifts the current market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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