Mount Etna's ongoing summit activity in 2026, including June–July and August effusive-strombolian episodes plus recent September ash emissions, has remained below VEI 2 thresholds according to INGV monitoring. Volcanic tremor stays at medium levels with weak, high-altitude ash confined without significant eruptive columns, prompting the aviation VONA code to drop from red to orange on September 18. Historical patterns show Etna produces frequent small events but VEI 2+ explosions (requiring over one million cubic meters of ejecta) occur irregularly, often tied to flank fissures or intensified summit paroxysms. With only months left in the year and no deformation or seismic signals indicating rapid escalation, trader consensus assigns an 88% implied probability to "No," reflecting the limited window and current moderate unrest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's ongoing summit activity in 2026, including June–July and August effusive-strombolian episodes plus recent September ash emissions, has remained below VEI 2 thresholds according to INGV monitoring. Volcanic tremor stays at medium levels with weak, high-altitude ash confined without significant eruptive columns, prompting the aviation VONA code to drop from red to orange on September 18. Historical patterns show Etna produces frequent small events but VEI 2+ explosions (requiring over one million cubic meters of ejecta) occur irregularly, often tied to flank fissures or intensified summit paroxysms. With only months left in the year and no deformation or seismic signals indicating rapid escalation, trader consensus assigns an 88% implied probability to "No," reflecting the limited window and current moderate unrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$21End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's ongoing summit activity in 2026, including June–July and August effusive-strombolian episodes plus recent September ash emissions, has remained below VEI 2 thresholds according to INGV monitoring. Volcanic tremor stays at medium levels with weak, high-altitude ash confined without significant eruptive columns, prompting the aviation VONA code to drop from red to orange on September 18. Historical patterns show Etna produces frequent small events but VEI 2+ explosions (requiring over one million cubic meters of ejecta) occur irregularly, often tied to flank fissures or intensified summit paroxysms. With only months left in the year and no deformation or seismic signals indicating rapid escalation, trader consensus assigns an 88% implied probability to "No," reflecting the limited window and current moderate unrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$21End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna's ongoing summit activity in 2026, including June–July and August effusive-strombolian episodes plus recent September ash emissions, has remained below VEI 2 thresholds according to INGV monitoring. Volcanic tremor stays at medium levels with weak, high-altitude ash confined without significant eruptive columns, prompting the aviation VONA code to drop from red to orange on September 18. Historical patterns show Etna produces frequent small events but VEI 2+ explosions (requiring over one million cubic meters of ejecta) occur irregularly, often tied to flank fissures or intensified summit paroxysms. With only months left in the year and no deformation or seismic signals indicating rapid escalation, trader consensus assigns an 88% implied probability to "No," reflecting the limited window and current moderate unrest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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