**Vesuvius remains in a prolonged state of quiescence at green alert level, with monitoring data from the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano showing only background activity through August 2026.** Low-energy seismicity (112 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0) is concentrated in the crater area, while GNSS, tilt, and geochemical measurements detect no magmatic deformation or significant changes in gas emissions beyond localized fumarolic trends. This pattern aligns with decades of post-1944 dormancy, where historical recurrence intervals for even modest VEI 1+ events span centuries. With only months remaining in 2026 and no precursors such as inflation or long-period events evident, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of an eruption. A sudden seismic swarm or rapid uplift could theoretically shift conditions, though current multiparametric surveillance indicates such escalation remains improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.**Vesuvius remains in a prolonged state of quiescence at green alert level, with monitoring data from the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano showing only background activity through August 2026.** Low-energy seismicity (112 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0) is concentrated in the crater area, while GNSS, tilt, and geochemical measurements detect no magmatic deformation or significant changes in gas emissions beyond localized fumarolic trends. This pattern aligns with decades of post-1944 dormancy, where historical recurrence intervals for even modest VEI 1+ events span centuries. With only months remaining in 2026 and no precursors such as inflation or long-period events evident, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of an eruption. A sudden seismic swarm or rapid uplift could theoretically shift conditions, though current multiparametric surveillance indicates such escalation remains improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$660End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.**Vesuvius remains in a prolonged state of quiescence at green alert level, with monitoring data from the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano showing only background activity through August 2026.** Low-energy seismicity (112 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0) is concentrated in the crater area, while GNSS, tilt, and geochemical measurements detect no magmatic deformation or significant changes in gas emissions beyond localized fumarolic trends. This pattern aligns with decades of post-1944 dormancy, where historical recurrence intervals for even modest VEI 1+ events span centuries. With only months remaining in 2026 and no precursors such as inflation or long-period events evident, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of an eruption. A sudden seismic swarm or rapid uplift could theoretically shift conditions, though current multiparametric surveillance indicates such escalation remains improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$660End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Vesuvius remains in a prolonged state of quiescence at green alert level, with monitoring data from the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano showing only background activity through August 2026.** Low-energy seismicity (112 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0) is concentrated in the crater area, while GNSS, tilt, and geochemical measurements detect no magmatic deformation or significant changes in gas emissions beyond localized fumarolic trends. This pattern aligns with decades of post-1944 dormancy, where historical recurrence intervals for even modest VEI 1+ events span centuries. With only months remaining in 2026 and no precursors such as inflation or long-period events evident, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of an eruption. A sudden seismic swarm or rapid uplift could theoretically shift conditions, though current multiparametric surveillance indicates such escalation remains improbable before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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