Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, now trading near 4.83-4.85% after touching multi-year highs above 4.85%, stems primarily from investor disappointment with the Treasury's $6 billion long-end buyback—smaller than some anticipated—alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel that have revived inflation concerns. Strong demand at the latest 10-year auction and heavy corporate issuance have reinforced the move higher, while Fed funds futures price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and economists largely expecting no change through year-end, market-implied odds for further yield declines this month remain constrained by these supply, energy, and monetary policy dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$18,802 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Below 4.76%
52%
Below 4.73%
32%
Below 4.70%
13%
Below 4.67%
22%
Below 4.64%
9%
Below 4.61%
5%
Below 4.56%
4%
Below 4.51%
5%
Below 4.45%
3%
$18,802 Vol.
Below 4.76%
$7,555 Vol.
52%
Below 4.73%
$1,122 Vol.
32%
Below 4.70%
$3,121 Vol.
13%
Below 4.67%
$194 Vol.
22%
Below 4.64%
$1,635 Vol.
9%
Below 4.61%
$2,027 Vol.
5%
Below 4.56%
$763 Vol.
4%
Below 4.51%
$436 Vol.
5%
Below 4.45%
$1,950 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, now trading near 4.83-4.85% after touching multi-year highs above 4.85%, stems primarily from investor disappointment with the Treasury's $6 billion long-end buyback—smaller than some anticipated—alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel that have revived inflation concerns. Strong demand at the latest 10-year auction and heavy corporate issuance have reinforced the move higher, while Fed funds futures price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and economists largely expecting no change through year-end, market-implied odds for further yield declines this month remain constrained by these supply, energy, and monetary policy dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$18,802End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, now trading near 4.83-4.85% after touching multi-year highs above 4.85%, stems primarily from investor disappointment with the Treasury's $6 billion long-end buyback—smaller than some anticipated—alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel that have revived inflation concerns. Strong demand at the latest 10-year auction and heavy corporate issuance have reinforced the move higher, while Fed funds futures price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and economists largely expecting no change through year-end, market-implied odds for further yield declines this month remain constrained by these supply, energy, and monetary policy dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$18,802End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, now trading near 4.83-4.85% after touching multi-year highs above 4.85%, stems primarily from investor disappointment with the Treasury's $6 billion long-end buyback—smaller than some anticipated—alongside elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel that have revived inflation concerns. Strong demand at the latest 10-year auction and heavy corporate issuance have reinforced the move higher, while Fed funds futures price roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady at 3.50-3.75% and economists largely expecting no change through year-end, market-implied odds for further yield declines this month remain constrained by these supply, energy, and monetary policy dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions