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Economy·Fed Rates

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?

icon for How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
Economy·Fed Rates

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$5,863 Vol.

Polymarket

Below 4.52%

$1,264 Vol.

46%

Below 4.49%

$561 Vol.

61%

Below 4.46%

$61 Vol.

25%

Below 4.43%

$79 Vol.

29%

Below 4.40%

$240 Vol.

21%

Below 4.37%

$468 Vol.

16%

Below 4.32%

$986 Vol.

8%

Below 4.27%

$797 Vol.

11%

Below 4.20%

$1,406 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in U.S. economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have driven 5-year Treasury yields higher to the 4.5–4.8% range in early September 2026. August payrolls exceeded expectations while core CPI and PCE readings remained elevated near 3.4%, prompting hawkish signals from officials including Governor Waller and Chair Warsh ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Markets now price meaningful odds of a 25-basis-point policy rate hike from the current 3.50–3.75% target range, lifting front-end and intermediate yields and limiting scope for near-term declines. Key upcoming releases include additional inflation prints and the FOMC decision itself, which will shape whether yields can retrace lower before month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$5,863
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in U.S. economic data and persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have driven 5-year Treasury yields higher to the 4.5–4.8% range in early September 2026. August payrolls exceeded expectations while core CPI and PCE readings remained elevated near 3.4%, prompting hawkish signals from officials including Governor Waller and Chair Warsh ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Markets now price meaningful odds of a 25-basis-point policy rate hike from the current 3.50–3.75% target range, lifting front-end and intermediate yields and limiting scope for near-term declines. Key upcoming releases include additional inflation prints and the FOMC decision itself, which will shape whether yields can retrace lower before month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$5,863
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Below 4.49%" at 61%, followed by "Below 4.52%" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?" is "Below 4.49%" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Below 4.52%" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.